Two of the three topics we expect to dominate the global macroeconomic debate in 2023 – falling inflation and future monetary policy loosening – are now largely priced into markets in the US. The question of whether the other topic – recessions – is discounted there is debatable. Our judgement is that it is not adequately reflected, and that “risky” assets will therefore drop back in the spring before recovering.
In view of the wider interest we are also sending this Global Markets Update to clients of our Asset Allocation and FX Markets Services.
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