Lower oil prices will batter Africa’s big oil exporters. But they will benefit Africa’s oil importers, which make up the majority of the region’s GDP. Lower petrol prices will, for instance, sap inflation in South Africa – supporting our view that policymakers will soon end their tightening cycle. We expect that data out next week will show that the country’s economy exited recession in Q3, growing by about 1.0% q/q saar.
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