Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is likely to remain one of the world’s best performing regions over the next couple of years but, in a number of countries, growing pains are starting to emerge. Budget and current account positions have deteriorated sharply in the likes of Ghana, Zambia and South Africa over the past few years. With significant policy tightening now required, a period of weaker growth is looming for these countries. There are external headwinds too. A slowdown in investment-led growth in China is likely to weigh heavily on the region’s metals producers. However, not all countries are likely to be affected. We expect a pick-up in growth in Kenya and a number of export-dependent economies in the south.
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