South Africa’s upcoming election looks set to herald a new era of coalition government. There are lots of permutations ranging from a centrist ANC-DA coalition to a so-called ‘doomsday coalition’ in which the ANC teams up with the left-wing EFF (although we suspect that some of the EFF’s more radical proposals would never see the light of day). One broader point is that, whichever parties govern, a more fragmented parliament is likely to make the jobs of stabilising the public finances and tackling structural economic problems even more difficult. During the next parliamentary term, we think the public debt ratio will continue to rise while GDP growth will stay weak at around 1.0-1.5% a year.
All our research on South Africa’s upcoming election can be found on a dedicated webpage. We will be discussing the vote in an online briefing today at 3pm BST. Sign up here.
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