US Commercial Property Update Global trends point to a more difficult decade ahead Commercial property wasn’t initially hit by the worsening in economic conditions at the turn of the year, but there are now growing signs of anxiety. Not only that, but even if the economic gloom is... 12th August 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update The six major markets will not be the only losers Pandemic-accelerated migration patterns were already driving outperformance in the southern states. But they have also brought the poor performance of weaker markets to the fore. With those structural... 10th August 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Office conversions most likely in high land cost metros The contrast between the strong performance of the apartment sector and the weak performance of offices in the last two years has made office-to-residential conversions more viable, but the numbers... 22nd July 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Stronger signs that office sector distress will grow The large-scale deterioration in office NOIs that we predicted would occur by the end of 2025 appears, on the face of it, to be some way off. But offices are the only sector seeing rising delinquency... 15th July 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Why this price correction will be nothing like the GFC Although we expect a comparable rise in interest rates to that which preceded the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), we think the risk of a credit-driven bust in the commercial real estate market is low... 11th July 2022 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Calling the top for US commercial real estate Indicators that include a recently released investor sentiment survey and a sharp fall in REIT prices since the start of the year support our updated view that capital values will go into reverse in... 24th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will property resist the effects of deglobalisation? A recent MSCI article speculated that real estate investment could buck the deglobalisation trend given distinct features of the asset class, though we are not convinced that will bring many benefits... 14th June 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Why we’re not too concerned by Amazon’s slowdown The perception of Amazon as a bellwether for the industrial sector made the announcement that it had over-expanded in the last two years a potentially worrying one. But, the fact that Amazon is only... 8th June 2022 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Update NYC apartment rental growth will cool rapidly Rental growth in NYC reached 22% y/y in Q1 2022, one of the fastest rates in the country. But we expect growth to cool rapidly from here and underperform other cities. The past surge in rents largely... 25th May 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Southern apartment rent growth unlikely to last forever Over our five-year forecast, we expect in-migration to the South will see apartment rents there outgrow the national average. But further ahead, the greater ability of supply to respond in the South... 12th May 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Industrial demand returning to West Coast ports Congestion at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach forced some container ships to reroute to the less busy ports of the Gulf Coast, supporting industrial occupier demand in those markets. But we... 11th May 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Forecast downgrades, but the sky is not about to fall Rises in short-and-long interest rates and the likelihood of further increases over the next 12 months pose a threat to real estate prices. While some have suggested that this will not derail market... 6th May 2022 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Update ULI Consensus Forecast (Spring 2022) Consensus forecasts for rents and total returns in 2022 and 2023 have been upgraded in all four sectors since the last survey. But those changes come with property pricing looking more stretched than... 4th May 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Divergence in regional mall performance set to persist The squeeze on consumer incomes points to a tough couple of years ahead for regional and super-regional malls, which tend to be more reliant on discretionary spending than other retail property types... 22nd April 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update There is still likely to be a reckoning for offices We think the recent upturn in office market performance is largely down to the one-off release of pent-up demand and remain downbeat about future prospects. With occupancy still languishing and remote... 21st April 2022 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Winning and losing office metros from hybrid work Structural changes to working patterns and the resultant shifts in office demand will vary by industry and job type. Occupations like life and physical sciences are likely to see a low adoption of... 13th April 2022 · 4 mins read
