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Inflation: it’s not just for goods any more

Paul Ashworth of Capital Economics argued that “even the Fed easing its foot off the accelerator a bit” can actually make quite a large impact on the real economy. Not only are marginal decisions about whether or not to take on debt are affected, but a higher cost to borrow diverts resources away from other forms of spending. Given that the neutral rate of interest (the rate that would pervade if the economy were running at potential, with full employment and constant inflation) appears very low right now, small changes in rates can be significant, even if real rates stay negative.
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