Economic Themes
Monday, 4th August
This Week
1. The July US employment report fuelled concerns that the economy is slowing far more sharply than previously thought. The report isn't a total surprise –we've long expected monthly payrolls growth to slow to 50,000 – but it does support those on the FOMC calling for rate cuts.
2. Rising long-dated JGB yields don’t signal growing concern over Japan's fiscal position. Debt dynamics are actually improving, and the rise in yields instead reflects shifting rate expectations and weaker structural demand, including for superlong bonds.
3. Our EM Financial Risk Indicators are an early warning system for sovereign, banking and FX vulnerabilities across major emerging markets. Our latest refresh shows how risks have receded, but also highlights where they could flare-up if global risk sentiment sours. Join our EM team for a Drop-In on this latest update this coming Wednesday.
Key new analysis from the team
Some of the key pieces of analysis curated by our economist team that you should be reading this week
DASHBOARD OF THE WEEK
Trade Hub
The “Tariffs: State of Play” section in the trade hub allows you to easily see where tariff rates have ended up, potential flashpoints in the future, and our Scenario Analysis.
PODCAST
The Weekly Briefing
That big payrolls miss and the US outlook, plus AI's energy demands
Does July's grim US jobs report vindicate the Fed's dissenters who pushed for rate cuts this week? Plus, with AI's global rollout pointing to formidable energy demands - where will supply come from?
