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Are the demographic headwinds strengthening?

A falling fertility rate and declining employment among retirement age workers pose downside risks to our long-term forecasts for Japan’s labour force and GDP growth. However, with the female participation rate still climbing from record highs and job openings for older people set to pick up as the economy shakes off the pandemic, we’re sticking to our forecast of (only) a 17% fall in the labour force by 2050.

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