Globalisation and its effects on the world economy

We estimate that the current wave of globalisation is responsible for around a third of the pick-up in global per capita income growth since 1990. Almost all of that reflects an improvement in productivity growth in emerging economies. For advanced economies, globalisation has had a marked impact on the distribution of income, but the effect on aggregate growth has been small. That suggests emerging markets would be at far greater risk if globalisation were to go into reverse.
Michael Pearce Senior US Economist
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Global Economics Update

PMIs show growth easing and inflation pressures rising

The flash PMIs for September show that the pace of growth slowed across developed economies towards the end of Q3, suggesting that the boost to activity from reopening is fading. But inflationary pressures show no signs of abating, with indicators of firms’ price pressures increasing again in September.

23 September 2021

Global Economics Update

Thinking through how we could be wrong on Evergrande

If, contrary to our opinion and the consensus, a collapse of Evergrande ends up having a significant impact on the rest of the world, it will be because it first causes either major financial dislocation within China or a property-led slump in China’s economy. The latter is probably the bigger risk for the global recovery. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this Global Economics Update to clients of our Emerging Markets Service.

Drop-In: Evergrande – What are the risks to China and the world? Chief Asia Economist Mark Williams and Senior China Economist Julian Evans-Pritchard will be joined by Senior Markets Economist Oliver Jones to take your questions about the Evergrande situation. They’ll be covering the implications of collapse for China’s financial system and growth outlook, and assessing the global markets fallout. Register here for the 0900 BST/1600 HKT session on Thursday, 23rd September.

22 September 2021

Global Economics Update

Surge in gas prices adds to near term price pressure

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21 September 2021

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US Data Response

ISM Manufacturing Index (May)

While the headline ISM manufacturing index edged up to 61.2 in May, from 60.7, the main takeaway from the release was that shortages of workers, and not just raw materials, now appear to be playing a key role in holding back production and pushing up prices.

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US Economics Weekly

Fed remaining dovish as supply-side constraints mount

In a relatively quiet week, the few data releases we did get added to signs that shortages are pushing up prices further and restraining the pace of economic recovery.

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US Economics Update

How big a risk is the slowdown in vaccinations?

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4 May 2021
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