We now forecast major CEE currencies to outperform the euro

We now expect interest rates to rise across Central and Eastern Europe in the coming years and for all the major currencies to strengthen against the euro, with the Czech koruna and Polish zloty faring best.
Bethany Beckett Assistant Economist
Continue reading

More from FX Markets

FX Markets Weekly Wrap

COVID throws another curveball

News late yesterday of a new and potentially more dangerous variant of COVID-19 emerging in South Africa has made a dramatic impact on financial markets today. In general, market shifts have been similar to those in previous periods of renewed uncertainty around the path of the pandemic. Risky assets and currencies have fallen across the board today, while bond yields have dropped sharply and safe havens – notably the yen – have rallied. Short-term rate expectations, which had risen significantly in the US and other DMs over recent months, have been pared back rapidly.

26 November 2021

FX Markets Weekly Wrap

Continued dollar rally looks increasingly likely

The US dollar is set to end another week higher against nearly all major currencies. To a large extent, this latest rally appears to be driven by the rise in short-term government bond yields in the US relative to other major economies, notably the euro-zone. And today’s news about renewed lockdowns in parts of Europe has reinforced growing concerns about the pace of the global economic recovery. Given our view that global growth will continue to slow and inflationary pressures in the US will prove more sustained than widely anticipated, the backdrop remains favourable for the dollar to strengthen further. Indeed, the minutes of the FOMC’s last meeting (due Wednesday) could lend support to this view.

19 November 2021

FX Markets Chart Book

US dollar bull market might just be getting started

The dollar has risen to its strongest level in more than a year and, though it is not our central forecast, we think the risk of a more sustained dollar bull market is increasing.

19 November 2021

More from Bethany Beckett

Capital Daily

US payrolls and Treasury yields

Although the 10-year Treasury yield hardly moved after today’s release of the US Employment Report for June, we still expect it to resume its rise before long.

2 July 2021

FX Markets Update

Weighing up the prospects for the NOK

We think that the Norwegian krone will continue to strengthen against the euro over next year or so. This is despite our forecast for a pull-back in oil prices and reflects our view of the relative prospects for monetary policy in Norway and the euro-zone.

1 July 2021

Capital Daily

We think that returns from US corporate bonds will underwhelm

US corporate credit spreads have reached post-Global-Financial-Crisis (GFC) lows in recent weeks. So, despite our forecast for a healthy US economy, we expect US corporate bonds to outperform Treasuries only very slightly.

22 June 2021
↑ Back to top