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West’s detachment from Russian energy gathers pace

The EU’s sixth round of sanctions on Russia marks yet another defining moment in the West’s detachment from Russia’s energy trade. The sanctions were widely telegraphed in advance, though, so for now we still forecast that crude oil prices will remain high but slide towards $100 per barrel by year-end.
Edward Gardner Commodities Economist
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Energy Data Response

US Weekly Petroleum Status Report

The rise in US crude stocks was in large part down to a drop in exports. More interesting was the jump in implied gasoline consumption, which probably reflects the recent fall in prices. This may not be sustainable if, as we think likely, Russia-related risks lead to higher crude prices later in the year.

10 August 2022

Energy Update

We’re less upbeat about OPEC oil supply

Concerns about the demand outlook have dragged the Brent crude oil price towards $90 per barrel this week. But, the supply-side concerns which pushed the price over $120 per barrel not too long ago haven’t entirely vanished. Indeed, following the OPEC+ meeting this week, we are now less upbeat on supply. Oil and the Gulf Drop-In (9th Aug): What’s the outlook for oil prices and what does that mean for Gulf economic outperformance? Join economists from our Commodities and Emerging Markets teams for this 20-minute briefing. Register now.

5 August 2022

Energy Data Response

US Weekly Petroleum Status Report

Crude oil prices have been for a rollercoaster ride today, rising by $3 per barrel following the OPEC+ meeting, and then more than erasing those gains later on. Prices fell particularly sharply after US stocks data came out, which showed a rise in commercial stocks. But, we think investors might have missed the bigger picture, which is that stocks including government reserves fell for the 24th time this year.

3 August 2022

More from Edward Gardner

Energy Data Response

US Weekly Petroleum Status Report

Commercial crude oil stocks fell again last week, but at a slower pace. Once again, lower net imports and higher refinery inputs led to the drawdown. Although both drivers became more pronounced last week, a bigger release from strategic reserves eased the downward pressure on commercial stocks. Forthcoming strategic reserve releases will continue to put a floor under commercial stocks.

25 May 2022

Energy Data Response

US Weekly Petroleum Status Report

Commercial crude oil stocks fell last week due to exports rising faster than imports and refineries stepping up operations. But high petroleum product prices should hold back demand in the coming months, which, along with further Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases, should send commercial stocks upward.

18 May 2022

OPEC Watch

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (May)

OPEC lowered its forecast for Russia’s oil production this year, but still expects it to rise. By contrast, we think Russia’s output will fall and see rising pressure on OPEC to step up output in response.

13 May 2022
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