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US natural gas prices to rise next year

Stronger demand should help to boost US natural gas prices next year. But an increase in supply and high stocks will limit the increase.
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Energy Data Response

US Weekly Petroleum Status Report

Commercial crude stocks fell last week as refineries raised production of petroleum products. However, refineries will probably struggle to raise output much further, with many of them operating near capacity. This, along with more strategic reserve releases, should put a floor under commercial crude stocks.

29 June 2022

Energy Update

Making sense of a price cap on Russian energy

The G7 proposal to impose a cap on the price of Russian oil and gas would introduce new supply-side risks by potentially disrupting Russian energy supplies. This could push global energy prices up further, but for now we still see Brent crude prices ending 2022 at $100 per barrel. The cap may also be effective at reducing the Russian government’s tax revenues. We don’t think a cap on the price of Urals crude would need to be too far below $80pb (from $90pb currently) to push Russia’s budget into a deficit. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this Energy Update to clients of our Commodities Overview and Emerging Europe Services.  

28 June 2022

Energy Update

OPEC+ to change tack from September

Whilst OPEC+ has been failing to meet its production quotas in recent months, it will technically finish unwinding its pandemic-related supply cuts come September. We think OPEC+ will then move to a more liberal approach and allow the few members with spare capacity to produce more. This is one reason why we forecast that the Brent oil price will ease back to around $100 per barrel by year end. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this Energy Update to clients of our Middle East and North Africa service.

23 June 2022

More from Capital Economics Economist

Global Markets Update

How will equities react to Trump’s “phenomenal” tax plan?

An overhaul of the US corporate tax code would probably provide a net boost to S&P 500 earnings. Nonetheless, we suspect that it would be small and that it has now been largely discounted in equity prices. For the time being we continue to forecast that the index will end this year a little lower than it is now – our forecast is 2,300 – as margins are squeezed by rising wages and a stronger dollar.

23 February 2017

Capital Daily

Has the US stock market got too excited about tax reform?

This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download.

23 February 2017

UK Housing Market Data Response

Housebuilding (Q4 2016)

Healthy levels of consumer confidence and steady economic growth encouraged housebuilders to ramp up production in Q4. And while we don’t think that pace of growth will be sustained, the outlook for starts is looking increasingly positive.

23 February 2017
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