Commodity shifts to worsen most EMs’ external positions

Major oil producers are among the main beneficiaries of the rise in commodity prices due to the war in Ukraine. As a result, we’re becoming less concerned about Colombia’s external vulnerabilities. In most other EMs however, external positions are likely to worsen. That is of particular concern for Chile and Romania, where current account deficits are already large. It will also increase risks in some other countries in Latin America (Peru), Asia (India, Thailand), and Eastern Europe (Poland, Hungary).