COVID-19 outbreaks diverge, booster shots rolled out

The past month has seen a growing divergence in COVID-19 outbreaks across the region, with cases still very low in Central Europe but surging in Israel and Turkey. Either way, it appears that restrictions will remain light touch and economic recoveries should stay on track. But studies showing that vaccine efficacy fades over time mean that booster shots look set to become the norm.
Jason Tuvey Senior Emerging Markets Economist
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Emerging Europe Data Response

Turkey GDP (Q3 2021)

Turkey’s economy put in another strong performance in Q3 but, as the effects of the recent currency crisis filter through, it is likely to suffer a contraction in Q4. The only crumb of comfort is that the downturn is likely to prove less severe than that which followed the 2018 crisis.   Drop-In: India – How much scarring will the pandemic leave? 10:00 ET/15:00 GMT, Wednesday 1st December https://event.on24.com/wcc/r/3535749/63CC51718846E8FF3D871827AC84AF1E?partnerref=report Drop-In: Why is Asia sitting out the global inflation surge? 09:00 GMT/17:00 HKT, Thursday 2nd December https://event.on24.com/wcc/r/3546145/A9D34EF592141BEFCAC819ADB40359D5?partnerref=report

30 November 2021

Emerging Europe Data Response

Economic Sentiment Indicators (Nov.)

The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for November showed a broad-based rise in industrial sentiment, but services sentiment softened further. With restrictions on activity being re-imposed amid surging virus cases and concern over the new ‘Omicron’ COVID-19 variant, the regional recovery is likely to slow in the coming months.

29 November 2021

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Lira crisis, MNB hikes, Ukraine-IMF, Romanian politics

This week has been dominated by the collapse in the Turkish lira and all our research on the crisis can be found here. While Turkey’s problems have been driven by a ‘head-in-the-sand’ approach to inflation and falls in the lira, Hungary’s central bank tightened policy further this week amid signs that officials across Central Europe are taking the inflation fight more seriously and becoming less tolerant of currency weakness. Elsewhere, the early signs are that a new grand coalition in Romania does not have the appetite for much-needed austerity. Finally, the latest tranche of IMF funds provide a welcome boost for Ukraine’s economy.
Drop-In: Why is Asia sitting out the global inflation surge? 09:00 GMT/17:00 HKT, Thursday 2nd December https://event.on24.com/wcc/r/3546145/A9D34EF592141BEFCAC819ADB40359D5?partnerref=report

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Middle East Economics Weekly

Gulf and oil prices, Egypt remittances, PIF’s Call of Duty

The latest drop back in oil prices is unlikely to be of much concern to policymakers in the Gulf and we still think that there is a window of opportunity for fiscal policy to be loosened. Elsewhere, remittances into Egypt have held up well during the pandemic but this is unlikely to be enough to prevent falls in the pound. Finally, Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) raised its stake in a major US video game producer this week although foreign acquisitions may become rarer as the PIF heeds the call to support domestic projects.

19 August 2021

Middle East Economics Update

A dive into Saudi Arabia’s balance of payments

A rise in oil prices has supported an improvement in Saudi Arabia’s current account position, which should be in surplus over the coming years. That, combined with signs that the sovereign wealth fund is slowing its international investments, will help to limit any further decline in the Kingdom’s foreign exchange reserves. The result is that the dollar peg is unlikely to come under pressure any time soon.

16 August 2021

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Erdogan disappointed as CBRT stands pat

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