August rate hike in Korea, Indonesia outbreak

We were already more hawkish that the consensus in expecting a rate hike in Korea this year, but recent comments by the central bank and strong economic data mean we are shifting forward our forecast for the first hike to the Bank of Korea’s meeting on 26th August. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s government has introduced tough new restrictions to combat a jump in virus cases. Despite the worsening outlook, there is little prospect of monetary or fiscal policy being loosened further to support demand.
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Emerging Asia Economics Update

How big a threat is Omicron to Asia?

Asian economies, like those elsewhere, have adapted to living with COVID-19 restrictions so that the impact of any tightening would be smaller than it was last year. And unlike in many EMs, there is still room for fiscal and monetary policy to be loosened if prospects took a turn for the worse. Asian exporters could also benefit if a new wave of global infections led to increased demand for consumer goods.

2 December 2021

Emerging Asia Economics Update

South East Asia rebounding, but disruption set to linger

Disruption to industrial activity across South East Asia has eased considerably in the past few weeks, helping to relax global supply constraints, especially in the automotive sector. However, a renewed surge in COVID infections in Vietnam deserves close attention. Drop-In: India – How much scarring will the pandemic leave? 10:00 ET/15:00 GMT, Wednesday 1st December https://event.on24.com/wcc/r/3535749/63CC51718846E8FF3D871827AC84AF1E?partnerref=report Drop-In: Why is Asia sitting out the global inflation surge? 09:00 GMT/17:00 HKT, Thursday 2nd December https://event.on24.com/wcc/r/3546145/A9D34EF592141BEFCAC819ADB40359D5?partnerref=report

1 December 2021

Emerging Asia Data Response

Korea Trade (Nov.)

Korean export values surged to record highs in November helped by temporary factors but also strong underlying growth. Exports should remain elevated for at least the next few months, helped by a gradual recovery in the auto sector.   Drop-In: India – How much scarring will the pandemic leave? 10:00 ET/15:00 GMT, Wednesday 1st December https://event.on24.com/wcc/r/3535749/63CC51718846E8FF3D871827AC84AF1E?partnerref=report Drop-In: Why is Asia sitting out the global inflation surge? 09:00 GMT/17:00 HKT, Thursday 2nd December https://event.on24.com/wcc/r/3546145/A9D34EF592141BEFCAC819ADB40359D5?partnerref=report

1 December 2021

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Taiwan: outbreak to weigh on consumption

The first major outbreak of COVID-19 in Taiwan has triggered the first significant restrictions on activity. Consumer spending will suffer, but the rest of the economy should still perform strongly.

17 May 2021

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Resurgent infections threaten recovery

Asia’s emergence from the pandemic has been threatened recently by a resurgence in infections across parts of the region. Most of South Asia, the Philippines and Thailand have had to introduce new restrictions to contain outbreaks of the virus, and we have cut our growth forecasts for a number of countries to reflect the worsening outlook. Elsewhere, China and Taiwan have already fully recovered from the crisis, while Vietnam is not far behind. Headline y/y growth rates in these economies will be flattered by base effects over the next couple of quarters, but in q/q terms growth will continue to slow. Central banks across the region are in no rush to tighten monetary policy. External factors won’t compel policymakers to tighten, and with inflationary pressures very weak, interest rates are likely to be kept low to support economic recoveries.

21 April 2021

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Taiwan’s semiconductor boom, Korea uncertainty

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16 April 2021
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