The People’s Bank (PBOC) has struck a dovish tone in its recent public statements, parroting calls by China’s leadership for lower real lending rates. But media reports suggest that the PBOC is taking a more hawkish approach behind closed doors, instructing banks to slow lending growth. Combined with reduced quotas for government borrowing, this window guidance points to a much weaker credit impulse this year.
Separately, the results from China’s once-a-decade census are due to be released soon. The headline demographic figures are likely to confirm what annual data already show – that China is aging at an increasingly rapid pace. More interesting will be the details about Chinese households that annual data don’t capture. These will shine a light on a range of important questions, including the likely impact of raising the statutory retirement age and how much more redevelopment of socialist-era housing could still happen over the coming years.
Become a client to read more
This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.
Already have an account?
You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.
Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it
Register for free
Sign up for a free account to gain:
- Unlock additional content
- Register for Capital Economics events
- Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
- Request a free trial of our services