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Changing views on China, export demand peaking

While China’s Communist Party was celebrating its achievements at its official centenary this week, a global survey revealed a sharp decline in popular enthusiasm for economic engagement with China in developed economies. That suggests that if governments in the West push for decoupling, they’ll find the public is receptive.
Mark Williams Chief Asia Economist
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More from China

China Economics Weekly

How quickly can activity rebound?

China’s previous COVID outbreaks offer a few clues to how quickly the economy will rebound this time. Even if further large-scale lockdowns are avoided, activity is unlikely to have recovered in full until near the end of the year, with the service sector slower to get back on its feet than industry.
Asia Drop-In (26th May, 0900 BST/16:00 SGT): Can Asia remain the low inflation exception? Join our 20-minute briefing about the region’s price and policy outlooks. Register here.

20 May 2022

China Economics Update

A helping hand for the housing market

Today’s reduction to the five-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) should help drive a revival in housing sales, which have gone from bad to worse recently. But the lack of any reduction to the one-year LPR suggests that the PBOC is trying to keep easing targeted and that we shouldn’t expect large-scale stimulus of the kind that we saw in 2020.

20 May 2022

China Data Response

China Activity & Spending (Apr.)

The April data were even weaker than expected and are consistent with a sharp contraction in economic activity. Provided that the virus situation continues to improve, the economy should begin to rebound this month. But the recovery is likely to be tepid.

16 May 2022

More from Mark Williams

Emerging Markets Economics Update

China is about to flood EMs with vaccines

By September, China could be in a position to export 340mn vaccines doses each month – more than most regions of the world have administered in total so far. China’s vaccines are less effective than others, but have been found to suppress outbreaks where they have been used if a high enough share of a population is vaccinated. Large-scale exports from China could therefore give a significant boost to the prospects of many EMs now struggling to vaccinate because of a lack of vaccine supply.

17 June 2021

Emerging Asia Economics Update

Taiwan: severe capacity constraints but few inflation fears

Taiwan’s economy is struggling with severe capacity constraints but there are few signs in recent data that this is fuelling broad-based wage or price pressure. That’s a stark contrast with the US, and should provide some reassurance to central bankers not just in Taipei but also further afield that economic recoveries, even if strong, won’t necessarily trigger inflation.

10 June 2021

China Economics Weekly

PBOC’s turn to target currency manipulators

After regulators last week pledged to root speculators out from the domestic commodity market, this week it was the turn of the People’s Bank to tackle manipulation in the currency market, which it abhors. We suspect though that, as with commodity prices, it will be fundamental forces rather than these campaigns that cause the renminbi to weaken over coming months.

28 May 2021
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