Australia & New Zealand

Reopening imminent but won’t start with a bang

‘Freedom day’ in New South Wales could be reached in little over a month. But the new freedoms will only be given to vaccinated residents. And the slower progress on vaccination in other states mean they may not open up quite so quickly. The upshot is that consumption may not rebound as strongly as we had previously thought next quarter.
Ben Udy Australia and New Zealand Economist
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Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Border reopening won’t ease labour shortages much

Australia’s government isn’t keen on opening the immigration floodgates once the border reopens to migrants next year and we still expect the unemployment rate to fall to 4% by 2023. Nor do we expect migration to ease labour shortages in New Zealand much next year. Nonetheless, New Zealand’s labour market is already very tight and with the RBNZ set to keep tightening monetary policy, we expect unemployment to creep higher over the next couple of years.

26 November 2021

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia - Retail Sales (Oct. 2021)

The 4.9% m/m jump in retail sales in October brought them very close to their May peak and supports our view that consumption will reverse nearly all of the plunge during the lockdown this quarter.

26 November 2021

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Private Capex Survey (Q3 21)

Private capital expenditure dropped during the recent lockdowns but firms’ forecasts point to a strong rebound over the coming quarters.

25 November 2021

More from Ben Udy

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBNZ to press ahead with tightening

Economic activity in New Zealand took a significant hit as the country was plunged into its strictest level of lockdown in August. But New Zealand’s success at taming the virus means output should return to its pre-Delta path by Q1 and the RBNZ will begin hiking rates in October.

9 September 2021

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Hospitalisations could pose risk to reopening

New South Wales and Victoria look set to remain under heavy restrictions until the vaccinations thresholds can be met. But with cases and hospitalisations surging there is a risk that hospitals will begin to approach maximum capacity. That could force states to delay reopening to avoid overwhelming the healthcare system even once 70% of their population are fully vaccinated and poses some downside risks to our optimistic Q4 GDP forecast. Meanwhile, New Zealand is doing well in its latest outbreak with cases falling and vaccinations surging. On that basis, we now think the RBNZ will press ahead with hiking rates in October.

3 September 2021

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia International Trade (Jul. 2021)

The record trade surplus in July was largely driven by stronger commodity prices which won’t last. But we expect weaker domestic demand to weigh on imports over the coming months which should see trade make a positive contribution to growth this quarter.

2 September 2021
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