Australia & New Zealand
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Australia- Shipping costs to boost inflation next year

Soaring shipping costs will exacerbate the impact of the weaker exchange rate on import price inflation. Indeed, we expect underlying inflation to return into the RBA’s 2-3% target next year.
Marcel Thieliant Senior Japan, Australia & New Zealand Economist
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Australia & New Zealand Data Response

New Zealand- Consumer Prices (Q3)

While we think the surge in inflation will start to abate in the year ahead, the strength will surely be worrying the RBNZ, supporting the case for further rate hikes.

18 October 2021

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Plans to double migration sound good in theory

The new NSW premier has received advice that Australia should double the pace of migration in the coming years to make up for lost population growth. That plan would help ease labour shortages, boost tax revenue and lift GDP growth. We already expect Australia to grow by more than the consensus anticipates next year, but if Australia is able to double the pace of migration growth, GDP would be even stronger than we expect.

15 October 2021

Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook

Rising inflationary pressures to prompt tightening

Domestic demand is set to rebound from recent lockdowns and labour markets should remain tight. Meanwhile, soaring energy and food prices will keep inflation high for a prolonged period. To be sure, the Reserve Bank of Australia won’t respond to high headline inflation until wage growth picks up in earnest. However, with severe staff shortages and limited immigration, the bargaining position of workers is strong and we expect Australia’s wage growth to reach 3% by the end of next year. We expect the RBNZ to hike rates to 1.5% next year and the RBA to start lifting rates in early-2023.

14 October 2021

More from Marcel Thieliant

Japan Economics Weekly

Struggling to generate inflation even now

While inflation in most advanced economies is now well above central banks’ targets, it is still negative in Japan. This is largely due to idiosyncratic factors that should fade by the middle of next year. Even so, inflation won’t reach the Bank of Japan’s 2% target anytime soon.

17 September 2021

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Labour Market (Aug.)

Employment plunged by 1.1% m/m in August, but we still think that the unemployment rate won’t surpass it pre-Delta level over the coming months even as the participation rate rebounds.

16 September 2021

Japan Data Response

Japan External Trade (Aug. 2021)

Today’s trade figures suggest that export volumes kept rising and we think that Japan’s focus on cars and machinery means that they will hold up better than in other Asian economies.

16 September 2021
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