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Tighter monetary policy on the horizon

The speed of the vaccination rollout has been disappointing and brief, localised lockdowns have set back the recovery in both countries. But vaccine supply should improve over the coming months which should allow those sectors still severely affected by the pandemic to recover in the second half of the year. We’re sticking to our above-consensus GDP forecasts and expect the RBNZ to start hiking next year and the RBA by end-2023.

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