Vaccine campaigns running into supply constraints

With the more contagious delta variant spreading in Australia, half of the population is now in lockdown. This highlights the Achilles heel of both countries’ virus management: their slow vaccine rollout. Just 8% of New Zealanders and 5% of Australians have been fully vaccinated. Daily jabs in both countries are equivalent to around 0.4% of the population, far below the 0.8%-1% rates currently seen in continental Europe. Vaccine supply is the main constraint. Australia’s vaccine campaign is strongly reliant on the locally-produced AstraZeneca vaccine, whose usage is only recommended for those above 60 due to concerns about blood clots. We estimate that this age group will be fully vaccinated by the end of July. New Zealand is relying exclusively on the Pfizer vaccine and warned this week that supply will be “pretty tight” until mid-July. While New Zealand has been able to prevent a fresh outbreak, it remains a major risk to the recovery.