Although GDP growth in Australia in the first quarter probably at least matched the 0.6% q/q rate in the fourth quarter of last year, the continued disappointment is the failure of non-mining investment to fill the hole left by the plunge in mining investment. We don’t expect this to change anytime soon, which is why we believe that GDP growth in this year as a whole will fall short of last year’s 2.5%. The outlook for investment in New Zealand is not as weak, but GDP growth there will still struggle to top 2.5% this year.
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