My subscription
...
Filters
My Subscription All Publications

SA corruption and inflation on display, Ghana’s troubles

The president of South Africa and the ruling ANC are taking the heat as corruption accusations fly. With political bickering likely to grow, the focus on boosting the economy with much-needed reforms is likely to take a backseat. Meanwhile, we think that the latest inflation reading out of South Africa will shift the debate on the scale of further monetary tightening towards 75bp steps. And in Ghana, policymakers appear to be stepping up efforts to support the cedi but at the risk of adding to the economy's pain.
Virag Forizs Emerging Markets Economist
Continue reading

More from Africa

Africa Economics Update

Kenya Election Result

After nearly a week since voters went to the ballot box, William Ruto was finally announced President-elect in Kenya, but investors’ roller-coaster ride will probably continue over the coming days and weeks with political risks set to run high.Following Kenya’s elections on 9th August, results were announced today with William Ruto (currently Deputy President) declared the official winner of the…

15 August 2022

Africa Data Response

Nigeria Consumer Prices (Jul.)

Inflation in Nigeria jumped to 19.6% y/y last month and we think that the headline rate will rise a bit further. Policymakers are likely to respond by raising the benchmark interest rate from 14.00% to 14.50% at the next MPC meeting in September, but we suspect the tightening cycle will not run beyond that as price pressures start to ease and the elections come into view.

15 August 2022

Africa Economics Update

Nigeria’s recovery looking bleak

The latest data out of Nigeria suggest that GDP growth weakened further in Q2. Ongoing production problems in the oil sector will drag on growth in the coming year and, while that is likely to be offset by fiscal stimulus ahead of February’s elections, we think the economy will fare worse than most expect in 2022-23.

15 August 2022

More from Virag Forizs

Africa Economics Weekly

Tighter global financing conditions, Zambia’s debt

African financial markets are not insulated from the tightening of global external financing conditions, and recent currency weakness and rising sovereign bond yields in the region will only add to already-strained balance sheets in some economies. Ghana, Kenya and Ethiopia seem most vulnerable. In Zambia, while debt restructuring negotiations finally kicked off this week, we suspect that getting a deal over the line will take some time. That and the decision to extend a subsidy scheme are likely to hold up the final agreement on the country’s IMF programme. World with Higher Rates - Drop-In (21st June, 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Does monetary policy tightening automatically mean recession? Are EMs vulnerable? How will financial market returns be affected? Join our special 20-minute briefing to find out what higher rates mean for macro and markets. Register now

17 June 2022

Africa Economics Update

Signs of Nigeria’s recovery decelerating further

The latest data from Nigeria suggest that the economic rebound slowed further at the start of Q2, and we think that the recovery will remain lacklustre over the coming quarters. The weakness of the economy may give monetary policymakers second thoughts about maintaining an aggressive pace of tightening. World with Higher Rates - Drop-In (21st June, 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Does monetary policy tightening automatically mean recession? Are EMs vulnerable? How will financial market returns be affected? Join our special 20-minute briefing to find out what higher rates mean for macro and markets. Register now  

16 June 2022

Africa Data Response

SA Activity Data (Apr.) & Nigeria Inflation (May)

South Africa’s activity data for April showed that flooding in a key province and renewed power cuts dealt a big blow to industrial sectors, while retail sales held up well. GDP probably still contracted at the start of Q2 and we don’t expect a very strong rebound over the remainder of the year. Elsewhere, the latest jump in Nigerian inflation will keep pressure on the central bank to tighten monetary policy further.

15 June 2022
↑ Back to top