Chief Economist's Note Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing gives his weekly take on the big issues in the global economy and highlights key analysis and events from Capital Economics Chief Economist's Note Here’s what you may have missed We’re aware that the turbulence in global financial markets over the past week has made it difficult to keep track of our various publications. With this in mind, I thought it would be useful to... 12th March 2020 Chief Economist's Note 2008, redux? *** Today we will be expanding the page on our website that tracks the daily spread and the economic and market impact of the coronavirus. You can see it here . We have also launched a daily alert... 9th March 2020 Chief Economist's Note How to think about the economic costs of a global pandemic The spread of coronavirus cases through Asia and Europe convulsed financial markets last week and led the forecasting community to speculate about the potential impact of a global pandemic on world... 2nd March 2020 Chief Economist's Note Fiscal rules are there to be broken Sajid Javid’s abrupt departure as Chancellor of the Exchequer has raised expectations of a significant fiscal expansion in the UK. Among economists, meanwhile, it’s generated plenty of discussion... 24th February 2020 Chief Economist's Note Counting the long-term cost of the coronavirus The past week has brought the first evidence of the economic damage caused by the coronavirus. The numbers are stark. Passenger traffic in China is down by around 60% compared to the same period... 17th February 2020 Chief Economist's Note There’s a growing tension at the heart of global markets The attention of markets remains fixed on the economic fallout from the coronavirus in China and beyond. This is understandable. The spread of the virus – or more accurately, the effort to contain it... 10th February 2020 Chief Economist's Note What we do – and don’t – know about the Wuhan virus The rapid spread of the Wuhan virus has forced economists and market participants to confront a series of questions that are almost impossible to answer. The outbreak has the potential to cause severe... 3rd February 2020 Chief Economist's Note What to expect from the UK economy in the next phase of Brexit Last week we held a conference in London in which we discussed the key issues facing the UK economy and financial markets in the next phase of Brexit. You can find all the presentations on our website... 27th January 2020 Chief Economist's Note The world in 2050: where and why the consensus may be wrong We’ve just published our latest Long-term Global Economic Outlook, which provides economic and market forecasts out to 2050. These come with the caveat that the usual uncertainty around forecasts... 20th January 2020 Chief Economist's Note Productivity holds the key to the next decade This is a time for looking ahead and, in that spirit, you can find all our big calls for this year on the “Key Themes” section of our website. However, it’s also worth pausing to reflect on the state... 13th January 2020 Chief Economist's Note What to expect in 2020 Last week I discussed how our forecasts for 2019 had fared. This week, I turn my attention to what we think will happen in 2020. The key point to emphasise is that we expect the global economy to... 16th December 2019 Chief Economist's Note A year in review It’s that time of year when a steady stream of “Key Calls for 2020” trickle into inboxes. We’ll be sending our own over the coming days and I’ll summarise them in my note next week. But before looking... 9th December 2019 Chief Economist's Note Beware the dangers of over-interpreting better news on trade This year has been a pretty gloomy one for the world economy, but the final few weeks have brought some better news. The latest survey data suggest that the slowdown in global growth is bottoming out... 2nd December 2019 Chief Economist's Note Elections move markets but seldom economies One of the questions we’ve been asked a lot in recent client meetings surrounds the complex interaction between government policy and economic growth. Elections are due in the UK next month and the US... 25th November 2019 Chief Economist's Note Trade deals are hard to do Anyone hoping for clarity on the details or timeline of a “phase one” trade deal between the US and China would have been left disappointed by President Trump’s speech to the Economic Club of New York... 18th November 2019 Chief Economist's Note Emerging market catch-up, Japanification and the “Great Stagnation” In my note last week I discussed why the world’s developed economies are facing a period of Japanese-style low growth, low inflation and ultra-low interest rates. The good news is that no such problem... 11th November 2019 Pagination Previous … Page 10 Page 11 Page 12 Page 13 Page 14 Current page 15 Page 16 Page 17 Page 18 Next
Chief Economist's Note Here’s what you may have missed We’re aware that the turbulence in global financial markets over the past week has made it difficult to keep track of our various publications. With this in mind, I thought it would be useful to... 12th March 2020
Chief Economist's Note 2008, redux? *** Today we will be expanding the page on our website that tracks the daily spread and the economic and market impact of the coronavirus. You can see it here . We have also launched a daily alert... 9th March 2020
Chief Economist's Note How to think about the economic costs of a global pandemic The spread of coronavirus cases through Asia and Europe convulsed financial markets last week and led the forecasting community to speculate about the potential impact of a global pandemic on world... 2nd March 2020
Chief Economist's Note Fiscal rules are there to be broken Sajid Javid’s abrupt departure as Chancellor of the Exchequer has raised expectations of a significant fiscal expansion in the UK. Among economists, meanwhile, it’s generated plenty of discussion... 24th February 2020
Chief Economist's Note Counting the long-term cost of the coronavirus The past week has brought the first evidence of the economic damage caused by the coronavirus. The numbers are stark. Passenger traffic in China is down by around 60% compared to the same period... 17th February 2020
Chief Economist's Note There’s a growing tension at the heart of global markets The attention of markets remains fixed on the economic fallout from the coronavirus in China and beyond. This is understandable. The spread of the virus – or more accurately, the effort to contain it... 10th February 2020
Chief Economist's Note What we do – and don’t – know about the Wuhan virus The rapid spread of the Wuhan virus has forced economists and market participants to confront a series of questions that are almost impossible to answer. The outbreak has the potential to cause severe... 3rd February 2020
Chief Economist's Note What to expect from the UK economy in the next phase of Brexit Last week we held a conference in London in which we discussed the key issues facing the UK economy and financial markets in the next phase of Brexit. You can find all the presentations on our website... 27th January 2020
Chief Economist's Note The world in 2050: where and why the consensus may be wrong We’ve just published our latest Long-term Global Economic Outlook, which provides economic and market forecasts out to 2050. These come with the caveat that the usual uncertainty around forecasts... 20th January 2020
Chief Economist's Note Productivity holds the key to the next decade This is a time for looking ahead and, in that spirit, you can find all our big calls for this year on the “Key Themes” section of our website. However, it’s also worth pausing to reflect on the state... 13th January 2020
Chief Economist's Note What to expect in 2020 Last week I discussed how our forecasts for 2019 had fared. This week, I turn my attention to what we think will happen in 2020. The key point to emphasise is that we expect the global economy to... 16th December 2019
Chief Economist's Note A year in review It’s that time of year when a steady stream of “Key Calls for 2020” trickle into inboxes. We’ll be sending our own over the coming days and I’ll summarise them in my note next week. But before looking... 9th December 2019
Chief Economist's Note Beware the dangers of over-interpreting better news on trade This year has been a pretty gloomy one for the world economy, but the final few weeks have brought some better news. The latest survey data suggest that the slowdown in global growth is bottoming out... 2nd December 2019
Chief Economist's Note Elections move markets but seldom economies One of the questions we’ve been asked a lot in recent client meetings surrounds the complex interaction between government policy and economic growth. Elections are due in the UK next month and the US... 25th November 2019
Chief Economist's Note Trade deals are hard to do Anyone hoping for clarity on the details or timeline of a “phase one” trade deal between the US and China would have been left disappointed by President Trump’s speech to the Economic Club of New York... 18th November 2019
Chief Economist's Note Emerging market catch-up, Japanification and the “Great Stagnation” In my note last week I discussed why the world’s developed economies are facing a period of Japanese-style low growth, low inflation and ultra-low interest rates. The good news is that no such problem... 11th November 2019
