Chief Economist's Note Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing gives his weekly take on the big issues in the global economy and highlights key analysis and events from Capital Economics The Chief Economist's Note What to expect in 2020 Last week I discussed how our forecasts for 2019 had fared. This week, I turn my attention to what we think will happen in 2020. The key point to emphasise is that we expect the global economy to... 16th December 2019 The Chief Economist's Note A year in review It’s that time of year when a steady stream of “Key Calls for 2020” trickle into inboxes. We’ll be sending our own over the coming days and I’ll summarise them in my note next week. But before looking... 9th December 2019 The Chief Economist's Note Beware the dangers of over-interpreting better news on trade This year has been a pretty gloomy one for the world economy, but the final few weeks have brought some better news. The latest survey data suggest that the slowdown in global growth is bottoming out... 2nd December 2019 The Chief Economist's Note Elections move markets but seldom economies One of the questions we’ve been asked a lot in recent client meetings surrounds the complex interaction between government policy and economic growth. Elections are due in the UK next month and the US... 25th November 2019 The Chief Economist's Note Trade deals are hard to do Anyone hoping for clarity on the details or timeline of a “phase one” trade deal between the US and China would have been left disappointed by President Trump’s speech to the Economic Club of New York... 18th November 2019 The Chief Economist's Note Emerging market catch-up, Japanification and the “Great Stagnation” In my note last week I discussed why the world’s developed economies are facing a period of Japanese-style low growth, low inflation and ultra-low interest rates. The good news is that no such problem... 11th November 2019 The Chief Economist's Note “Japanification” and what it means for growth, inflation and financial markets I spent much of last week visiting clients in Europe. A frequent topic of discussion was our view that we’re witnessing the steady “Japanification” of Europe and, indeed, much of the developed world... 4th November 2019 The Chief Economist's Note Three themes from our latest forecasts Last week we published our latest Global Economic Outlook (you can read it here). Detailed analysis of the prospects for individual countries and regions can be found on our separate country services... 21st October 2019 The Chief Economist's Note Three thoughts on the US-China trade dispute The trade talks between the US and China dominated the news last week. At the risk of adding to the considerable ink that’s already been spilled on the subject, I think that three points have either... 14th October 2019 The Chief Economist's Note The end of globalisation Last week we held a series of conferences across Europe in which we argued that globalisation has peaked – and that there is a significant and underappreciated risk that the world will start to de... 7th October 2019 The Chief Economist's Note The global economy can’t catch a break For those worried about the prospects of an imminent US recession the past couple of weeks have brought some better news: while the latest economic data have generally remained soft, there have at... 30th September 2019 The Chief Economist's Note Fear and loathing at the lower bound Most of us have spent a large part of the past fortnight poring over central bank statements. You can read our take on last week’s Fed, BoJ and Bank of England meetings in the usual places on our... 23rd September 2019 CE Insights Buenos Aires still fighting yesterday’s battles To death and taxes we can also add the inevitability of a default by Argentina’s government every decade or so. The announcement last month that Buenos Aires will attempt to “re-profile” its debt... 16th September 2019 The Chief Economist's Note Recession debate misses the bigger picture In my note last week I argued that the trend decline in bond yields over the past couple of decades could be justified by shifting economic forces and thus did not represent the “bubble” that many now... 9th September 2019 The Chief Economist's Note No, this isn’t a bond “bubble” The late-1990s saw a bubble in equity markets and the mid-2000s saw a bubble in housing. Today many see a bubble in government bonds. Indeed, for some, this is the biggest bubble of all – and one that... 3rd September 2019 The Chief Economist's Note The economics of currency wars One of the most interesting aspects of the economics of currency depreciation is how the narrative tends to develop in different ways in different countries. The trigger for the turbulence in global... 19th August 2019 Pagination Previous … Page 10 Page 11 Page 12 Page 13 Page 14 Current page 15 Page 16 Page 17 Page 18 Next
The Chief Economist's Note What to expect in 2020 Last week I discussed how our forecasts for 2019 had fared. This week, I turn my attention to what we think will happen in 2020. The key point to emphasise is that we expect the global economy to... 16th December 2019
The Chief Economist's Note A year in review It’s that time of year when a steady stream of “Key Calls for 2020” trickle into inboxes. We’ll be sending our own over the coming days and I’ll summarise them in my note next week. But before looking... 9th December 2019
The Chief Economist's Note Beware the dangers of over-interpreting better news on trade This year has been a pretty gloomy one for the world economy, but the final few weeks have brought some better news. The latest survey data suggest that the slowdown in global growth is bottoming out... 2nd December 2019
The Chief Economist's Note Elections move markets but seldom economies One of the questions we’ve been asked a lot in recent client meetings surrounds the complex interaction between government policy and economic growth. Elections are due in the UK next month and the US... 25th November 2019
The Chief Economist's Note Trade deals are hard to do Anyone hoping for clarity on the details or timeline of a “phase one” trade deal between the US and China would have been left disappointed by President Trump’s speech to the Economic Club of New York... 18th November 2019
The Chief Economist's Note Emerging market catch-up, Japanification and the “Great Stagnation” In my note last week I discussed why the world’s developed economies are facing a period of Japanese-style low growth, low inflation and ultra-low interest rates. The good news is that no such problem... 11th November 2019
The Chief Economist's Note “Japanification” and what it means for growth, inflation and financial markets I spent much of last week visiting clients in Europe. A frequent topic of discussion was our view that we’re witnessing the steady “Japanification” of Europe and, indeed, much of the developed world... 4th November 2019
The Chief Economist's Note Three themes from our latest forecasts Last week we published our latest Global Economic Outlook (you can read it here). Detailed analysis of the prospects for individual countries and regions can be found on our separate country services... 21st October 2019
The Chief Economist's Note Three thoughts on the US-China trade dispute The trade talks between the US and China dominated the news last week. At the risk of adding to the considerable ink that’s already been spilled on the subject, I think that three points have either... 14th October 2019
The Chief Economist's Note The end of globalisation Last week we held a series of conferences across Europe in which we argued that globalisation has peaked – and that there is a significant and underappreciated risk that the world will start to de... 7th October 2019
The Chief Economist's Note The global economy can’t catch a break For those worried about the prospects of an imminent US recession the past couple of weeks have brought some better news: while the latest economic data have generally remained soft, there have at... 30th September 2019
The Chief Economist's Note Fear and loathing at the lower bound Most of us have spent a large part of the past fortnight poring over central bank statements. You can read our take on last week’s Fed, BoJ and Bank of England meetings in the usual places on our... 23rd September 2019
CE Insights Buenos Aires still fighting yesterday’s battles To death and taxes we can also add the inevitability of a default by Argentina’s government every decade or so. The announcement last month that Buenos Aires will attempt to “re-profile” its debt... 16th September 2019
The Chief Economist's Note Recession debate misses the bigger picture In my note last week I argued that the trend decline in bond yields over the past couple of decades could be justified by shifting economic forces and thus did not represent the “bubble” that many now... 9th September 2019
The Chief Economist's Note No, this isn’t a bond “bubble” The late-1990s saw a bubble in equity markets and the mid-2000s saw a bubble in housing. Today many see a bubble in government bonds. Indeed, for some, this is the biggest bubble of all – and one that... 3rd September 2019
The Chief Economist's Note The economics of currency wars One of the most interesting aspects of the economics of currency depreciation is how the narrative tends to develop in different ways in different countries. The trigger for the turbulence in global... 19th August 2019
