Chief Economist's Note Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing gives his weekly take on the big issues in the global economy and highlights key analysis and events from Capital Economics Chief Economist's Note Three thoughts on the US-China trade dispute The trade talks between the US and China dominated the news last week. At the risk of adding to the considerable ink that’s already been spilled on the subject, I think that three points have either... 14th October 2019 Chief Economist's Note The end of globalisation Last week we held a series of conferences across Europe in which we argued that globalisation has peaked – and that there is a significant and underappreciated risk that the world will start to de... 7th October 2019 Chief Economist's Note The global economy can’t catch a break For those worried about the prospects of an imminent US recession the past couple of weeks have brought some better news: while the latest economic data have generally remained soft, there have at... 30th September 2019 Chief Economist's Note Fear and loathing at the lower bound Most of us have spent a large part of the past fortnight poring over central bank statements. You can read our take on last week’s Fed, BoJ and Bank of England meetings in the usual places on our... 23rd September 2019 CE Insights Buenos Aires still fighting yesterday’s battles To death and taxes we can also add the inevitability of a default by Argentina’s government every decade or so. The announcement last month that Buenos Aires will attempt to “re-profile” its debt... 16th September 2019 Chief Economist's Note Recession debate misses the bigger picture In my note last week I argued that the trend decline in bond yields over the past couple of decades could be justified by shifting economic forces and thus did not represent the “bubble” that many now... 9th September 2019 Chief Economist's Note No, this isn’t a bond “bubble” The late-1990s saw a bubble in equity markets and the mid-2000s saw a bubble in housing. Today many see a bubble in government bonds. Indeed, for some, this is the biggest bubble of all – and one that... 3rd September 2019 Chief Economist's Note The economics of currency wars One of the most interesting aspects of the economics of currency depreciation is how the narrative tends to develop in different ways in different countries. The trigger for the turbulence in global... 19th August 2019 Chief Economist's Note A reality check Regular readers will know that we’ve been among the most bearish forecasters for global growth over the past 6-12 months. Consistent with this, at the start of this year we argued that government bond... 12th August 2019 Chief Economist's Note The end of the world as we know it? The decision last week by the US government to impose additional tariffs on imports from China shouldn’t come as a surprise. As I argued a couple of months ago, the political dynamics on both sides of... 5th August 2019 Chief Economist's Note Will insurance cuts be enough? After last Thursday’s ECB meeting, the focus will now shift to the Fed. A cut in interest rates at this week’s FOMC meeting is now widely expected and anything less would send shockwaves through bond... 29th July 2019 Chief Economist's Note Checking in on our key calls With Q2 behind us, now seems a good time to revisit some of the forecasts for 2019 that we made at the start of the year. At the risk of blowing our trumpet too hard, I think – with one or two... 1st July 2019 Chief Economist's Note Problems in Italy still bubbling under the surface Markets spent most of last week processing a dovish shift by two of the world’s major central banks. First came a speech by Mario Draghi, in which he gave the clearest indication yet that the ECB is... 25th June 2019 Chief Economist's Note Hunkering down for a long trade war In last week’s note I sketched out the costs so far of President Trump’s trade war. In this week’s note I turn my attention to the economic damage it may cause in the future. Three points are worth... 17th June 2019 Chief Economist's Note Pinning down the costs of the trade war President Trump may have called off his plan to impose tariffs on Mexico, but a deal with China appears to be further away than ever. This raises two questions. First, to what extent has the president... 10th June 2019 Chief Economist's Note China’s slowdown and what it means for the rest of the world This week we are hosting an event in Frankfurt that will explore China’s changing role in the global economy. (If you are interested in attending, register here.) Regular readers will know that, in... 3rd June 2019 Pagination Previous … Page 12 Page 13 Page 14 Page 15 Page 16 Page 17 Current page 18 Page 19 Page 20 Next
Chief Economist's Note Three thoughts on the US-China trade dispute The trade talks between the US and China dominated the news last week. At the risk of adding to the considerable ink that’s already been spilled on the subject, I think that three points have either... 14th October 2019
Chief Economist's Note The end of globalisation Last week we held a series of conferences across Europe in which we argued that globalisation has peaked – and that there is a significant and underappreciated risk that the world will start to de... 7th October 2019
Chief Economist's Note The global economy can’t catch a break For those worried about the prospects of an imminent US recession the past couple of weeks have brought some better news: while the latest economic data have generally remained soft, there have at... 30th September 2019
Chief Economist's Note Fear and loathing at the lower bound Most of us have spent a large part of the past fortnight poring over central bank statements. You can read our take on last week’s Fed, BoJ and Bank of England meetings in the usual places on our... 23rd September 2019
CE Insights Buenos Aires still fighting yesterday’s battles To death and taxes we can also add the inevitability of a default by Argentina’s government every decade or so. The announcement last month that Buenos Aires will attempt to “re-profile” its debt... 16th September 2019
Chief Economist's Note Recession debate misses the bigger picture In my note last week I argued that the trend decline in bond yields over the past couple of decades could be justified by shifting economic forces and thus did not represent the “bubble” that many now... 9th September 2019
Chief Economist's Note No, this isn’t a bond “bubble” The late-1990s saw a bubble in equity markets and the mid-2000s saw a bubble in housing. Today many see a bubble in government bonds. Indeed, for some, this is the biggest bubble of all – and one that... 3rd September 2019
Chief Economist's Note The economics of currency wars One of the most interesting aspects of the economics of currency depreciation is how the narrative tends to develop in different ways in different countries. The trigger for the turbulence in global... 19th August 2019
Chief Economist's Note A reality check Regular readers will know that we’ve been among the most bearish forecasters for global growth over the past 6-12 months. Consistent with this, at the start of this year we argued that government bond... 12th August 2019
Chief Economist's Note The end of the world as we know it? The decision last week by the US government to impose additional tariffs on imports from China shouldn’t come as a surprise. As I argued a couple of months ago, the political dynamics on both sides of... 5th August 2019
Chief Economist's Note Will insurance cuts be enough? After last Thursday’s ECB meeting, the focus will now shift to the Fed. A cut in interest rates at this week’s FOMC meeting is now widely expected and anything less would send shockwaves through bond... 29th July 2019
Chief Economist's Note Checking in on our key calls With Q2 behind us, now seems a good time to revisit some of the forecasts for 2019 that we made at the start of the year. At the risk of blowing our trumpet too hard, I think – with one or two... 1st July 2019
Chief Economist's Note Problems in Italy still bubbling under the surface Markets spent most of last week processing a dovish shift by two of the world’s major central banks. First came a speech by Mario Draghi, in which he gave the clearest indication yet that the ECB is... 25th June 2019
Chief Economist's Note Hunkering down for a long trade war In last week’s note I sketched out the costs so far of President Trump’s trade war. In this week’s note I turn my attention to the economic damage it may cause in the future. Three points are worth... 17th June 2019
Chief Economist's Note Pinning down the costs of the trade war President Trump may have called off his plan to impose tariffs on Mexico, but a deal with China appears to be further away than ever. This raises two questions. First, to what extent has the president... 10th June 2019
Chief Economist's Note China’s slowdown and what it means for the rest of the world This week we are hosting an event in Frankfurt that will explore China’s changing role in the global economy. (If you are interested in attending, register here.) Regular readers will know that, in... 3rd June 2019
