Chief Economist's Note Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing gives his weekly take on the big issues in the global economy and highlights key analysis and events from Capital Economics Chief Economist's Note What to make of the latest rise in oil prices Oil has been thrust back into the headlines over the past week following a spike in prices that has taken Brent crude back to around $75pb. As a result, the price of Brent has now risen by 45% from... 29th April 2019 Chief Economist's Note China’s other slowdown Another week, and another set of figures that suggest China’s economy has begun to find its feet. Last week’s release of activity data for March showed that, having slowed for the best part of a year... 22nd April 2019 Chief Economist's Note A very British farce I have been loath to wade into the debate around Brexit in these notes. That’s partly because it has become a sorry and depressing tale of abject political failure on pretty much every side in the UK... 15th April 2019 Chief Economist's Note Springtime for the global economy? Three pieces of data released last week brought hope that, having slowed for the best part of six months, the world economy may now be starting to stabilise. First came March’s Caixin manufacturing... 8th April 2019 Chief Economist's Note Bond markets flash red on the real economy Unless you’ve locked yourself away in a dark room for the past week (and, for UK readers, that would be entirely understandable given the debacle over Brexit), then you’ll have heard plenty of... 1st April 2019 Chief Economist's Note Picking apart the threat from secular stagnation A recent paper by Larry Summers and Lukasz Rachel has been doing the rounds among economists and has revived debate in financial markets about “secular stagnation”. But what is “secular stagnation”... 25th March 2019 Chief Economist's Note Taking stock of the health of the global economy The continued weakness in key economic data, together with the recent abrupt change in tone by the European Central Bank, has prompted renewed questions about the health of the global economy. At... 18th March 2019 Chief Economist's Note Why the consensus on Asia is wrong – and why it matters for the rest of the world Last week we held a series of conferences across Asia and Australia discussing the outlook for the global economy and financial markets. You can find recordings of all our presentations here. A... 11th March 2019 Chief Economist's Note The dangers of over-interpreting a US-China trade deal We seem to be moving towards an agreement between the US and China on trade. What would this mean for the global economy? The finer points of the deal are still unclear, but it is likely to involve... 4th March 2019 Chief Economist's Note What explains the global slowdown? What’s behind the slowdown in the global economy in recent months? It’s a question we’re often asked by clients – and one to which there is no simple answer. Part of the problem is that it’s often... 25th February 2019 Chief Economist's Note Policymakers still have ammunition – but will they use it? Do policymakers have sufficient ammunition to fight the next economic downturn? It’s a question that’s vexing economists - and at first sight the answer appears to be “no”. After all, on the fiscal... 18th February 2019 Chief Economist's Note If you only watch one chart, make sure it’s this one Will the recent weakness in a broad swathe of economic data be a flash in the pan or does it herald the start of a new global downturn? The answer is likely to depend in part on what happens to... 11th February 2019 Chief Economist's Note Time for policymakers outside the US to step up to the plate With concerns about the outlook for the global economy starting to build, thoughts are turning to what policymakers might do to support growth. A common refrain is that the current low level of real... 4th February 2019 Chief Economist's Note As the data collapse, what might we be missing? Annual gatherings, like those in Davos last week, tend to produce little in the way of meaningful policy shifts, but they can be a useful way of gauging the mood about the global economy. This year it... 28th January 2019 Chief Economist's Note In defence of central banks Populist governments have already challenged several areas of received economic wisdom, so it was perhaps only a matter of time before they turned their focus to central banks. As ever, President... 21st January 2019 Chief Economist's Note China’s role in the coming global slowdown The market sell-off in the final weeks of last year was driven in part by fears about an over-zealous Fed, but also by growing concerns about the health of China’s economy. So is it time to worry... 14th January 2019 Pagination Previous … Page 11 Page 12 Page 13 Page 14 Page 15 Page 16 Page 17 Current page 18 Page 19 Next
Chief Economist's Note What to make of the latest rise in oil prices Oil has been thrust back into the headlines over the past week following a spike in prices that has taken Brent crude back to around $75pb. As a result, the price of Brent has now risen by 45% from... 29th April 2019
Chief Economist's Note China’s other slowdown Another week, and another set of figures that suggest China’s economy has begun to find its feet. Last week’s release of activity data for March showed that, having slowed for the best part of a year... 22nd April 2019
Chief Economist's Note A very British farce I have been loath to wade into the debate around Brexit in these notes. That’s partly because it has become a sorry and depressing tale of abject political failure on pretty much every side in the UK... 15th April 2019
Chief Economist's Note Springtime for the global economy? Three pieces of data released last week brought hope that, having slowed for the best part of six months, the world economy may now be starting to stabilise. First came March’s Caixin manufacturing... 8th April 2019
Chief Economist's Note Bond markets flash red on the real economy Unless you’ve locked yourself away in a dark room for the past week (and, for UK readers, that would be entirely understandable given the debacle over Brexit), then you’ll have heard plenty of... 1st April 2019
Chief Economist's Note Picking apart the threat from secular stagnation A recent paper by Larry Summers and Lukasz Rachel has been doing the rounds among economists and has revived debate in financial markets about “secular stagnation”. But what is “secular stagnation”... 25th March 2019
Chief Economist's Note Taking stock of the health of the global economy The continued weakness in key economic data, together with the recent abrupt change in tone by the European Central Bank, has prompted renewed questions about the health of the global economy. At... 18th March 2019
Chief Economist's Note Why the consensus on Asia is wrong – and why it matters for the rest of the world Last week we held a series of conferences across Asia and Australia discussing the outlook for the global economy and financial markets. You can find recordings of all our presentations here. A... 11th March 2019
Chief Economist's Note The dangers of over-interpreting a US-China trade deal We seem to be moving towards an agreement between the US and China on trade. What would this mean for the global economy? The finer points of the deal are still unclear, but it is likely to involve... 4th March 2019
Chief Economist's Note What explains the global slowdown? What’s behind the slowdown in the global economy in recent months? It’s a question we’re often asked by clients – and one to which there is no simple answer. Part of the problem is that it’s often... 25th February 2019
Chief Economist's Note Policymakers still have ammunition – but will they use it? Do policymakers have sufficient ammunition to fight the next economic downturn? It’s a question that’s vexing economists - and at first sight the answer appears to be “no”. After all, on the fiscal... 18th February 2019
Chief Economist's Note If you only watch one chart, make sure it’s this one Will the recent weakness in a broad swathe of economic data be a flash in the pan or does it herald the start of a new global downturn? The answer is likely to depend in part on what happens to... 11th February 2019
Chief Economist's Note Time for policymakers outside the US to step up to the plate With concerns about the outlook for the global economy starting to build, thoughts are turning to what policymakers might do to support growth. A common refrain is that the current low level of real... 4th February 2019
Chief Economist's Note As the data collapse, what might we be missing? Annual gatherings, like those in Davos last week, tend to produce little in the way of meaningful policy shifts, but they can be a useful way of gauging the mood about the global economy. This year it... 28th January 2019
Chief Economist's Note In defence of central banks Populist governments have already challenged several areas of received economic wisdom, so it was perhaps only a matter of time before they turned their focus to central banks. As ever, President... 21st January 2019
Chief Economist's Note China’s role in the coming global slowdown The market sell-off in the final weeks of last year was driven in part by fears about an over-zealous Fed, but also by growing concerns about the health of China’s economy. So is it time to worry... 14th January 2019
