Chief Economist's Note Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing gives his weekly take on the big issues in the global economy and highlights key analysis and events from Capital Economics Chief Economist's Note Five macro themes that will shape the world in 2026 The past year has underlined just how influential a handful of macro and market forces have become, from the AI investment boom to persistent US-China tensions to the build up of fiscal risks. Those... 1st December 2025 Chief Economist's Note The UK Budget’s stark lesson: no growth plan means no good fiscal options Fiscal policy returns to centre stage this week, with Chancellor Rachel Reeves set to deliver her Autumn Budget on Wednesday. The debate will revolve around the size of the fiscal squeeze required to... 24th November 2025 Chief Economist's Note AI and the macro outlook: two questions shaping the debate The questions that come up most often in client meetings tend to offer a good barometer of the issues preoccupying investors. Over the course of this year, the focus has shifted markedly. The first... 17th November 2025 Chief Economist's Note Tariffs, the Supreme Court, and the shape of trade in a fractured world President Trump has described the Supreme Court case over his tariff regime – with characteristic restraint – as “literally, LIFE OR DEATH for our Country”. Hyperbole aside, the stakes are indeed high... 10th November 2025 Chief Economist's Note FOMO, not fundamentals, drives gold and undermines the ‘debasement’ story The pullback in gold prices over the past week shouldn’t have come as a surprise. The yellow metal has been on such an extraordinary tear this year that it had become even more unmoored from any... 27th October 2025 Chief Economist's Note The great tariffs illusion: Trade flows shift, but imbalances endure One of the more dispiriting aspects of the US–China trade war is the insistence from both Washington and Beijing that they are “winning.” The truth, of course, is that no one wins a trade war. Yet the... 20th October 2025 Chief Economist's Note France is in a mess but this isn’t 2012 redux What began as a political crisis risks descending into farce. Barely a week after stepping down, Sébastien Lecornu has been reappointed as France’s prime minister, the fourth in a year. The episode... 13th October 2025 Chief Economist's Note Expectations upended: Why Europe’s still stalled as America surges It wasn’t meant to turn out like this. Only a few months ago, when Donald Trump swept back into the White House, the story was one of fading US exceptionalism. The consensus view was that tariffs... 6th October 2025 Chief Economist's Note How much is too much? Thinking through triggers of the next fiscal crisis It is now widely acknowledged that the public finances of several advanced economies are on perilous ground. We have identified Italy, France, the United States, and the United Kingdom – the so-called... 29th September 2025 Chief Economist's Note Tariffs may stall trade growth, but China’s overcapacity is the bigger danger What will happen to global trade now that the contours of Donald Trump’s tariffs regime are starting to take shape? It’s a question that kept cropping up in talks with clients in Copenhagen last week... 22nd September 2025 Chief Economist's Note It’s the politics, stupid Another squall in the bond market appears to have blown itself out. The summer lull had been interrupted by a jump in long bond yields, triggering warnings about surging government borrowing costs and... 15th September 2025 Chief Economist's Note A fractured world - and a US own goal? Launching a book is never straightforward. It requires planning, persuasion – and sometimes a bit of luck. I have been fortunate on that front this past week with two events in China providing... 8th September 2025 Chief Economist's Note A post-summer catch-up With Europe still returning from the beach and the US gearing up for Labor Day, I’ll spare you a full note this week. But for those easing back into work, here’s a quick recap of the key developments... 27th August 2025 Chief Economist's Note US chip reversal highlights policy incoherence in a fractured world President Trump likes to tell us that the United States “holds all the cards” in the ongoing trade war. Judging by the surprisingly mild inflationary impact of tariffs so far – less than most... 18th August 2025 CE Insights America or China? As the global economy fractures, the world will have to choose Seemingly endless commentary has been devoted to the supposed death of globalisation. But as ever in economics, the story is not quite so simple. The popular narrative goes like this: tariffs first... 13th August 2025 Chief Economist's Note Trump, institutions and the deafening silence of the markets Late last week, Donald Trump did what he does best: lob a grenade into the machinery of government. In this case, the target was the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the body responsible for... 6th August 2025 Pagination Current page 1 Page 2 Page 3 Page 4 Page 5 Page 6 Page 7 Page 8 Page 9 … Next
Chief Economist's Note Five macro themes that will shape the world in 2026 The past year has underlined just how influential a handful of macro and market forces have become, from the AI investment boom to persistent US-China tensions to the build up of fiscal risks. Those... 1st December 2025
Chief Economist's Note The UK Budget’s stark lesson: no growth plan means no good fiscal options Fiscal policy returns to centre stage this week, with Chancellor Rachel Reeves set to deliver her Autumn Budget on Wednesday. The debate will revolve around the size of the fiscal squeeze required to... 24th November 2025
Chief Economist's Note AI and the macro outlook: two questions shaping the debate The questions that come up most often in client meetings tend to offer a good barometer of the issues preoccupying investors. Over the course of this year, the focus has shifted markedly. The first... 17th November 2025
Chief Economist's Note Tariffs, the Supreme Court, and the shape of trade in a fractured world President Trump has described the Supreme Court case over his tariff regime – with characteristic restraint – as “literally, LIFE OR DEATH for our Country”. Hyperbole aside, the stakes are indeed high... 10th November 2025
Chief Economist's Note FOMO, not fundamentals, drives gold and undermines the ‘debasement’ story The pullback in gold prices over the past week shouldn’t have come as a surprise. The yellow metal has been on such an extraordinary tear this year that it had become even more unmoored from any... 27th October 2025
Chief Economist's Note The great tariffs illusion: Trade flows shift, but imbalances endure One of the more dispiriting aspects of the US–China trade war is the insistence from both Washington and Beijing that they are “winning.” The truth, of course, is that no one wins a trade war. Yet the... 20th October 2025
Chief Economist's Note France is in a mess but this isn’t 2012 redux What began as a political crisis risks descending into farce. Barely a week after stepping down, Sébastien Lecornu has been reappointed as France’s prime minister, the fourth in a year. The episode... 13th October 2025
Chief Economist's Note Expectations upended: Why Europe’s still stalled as America surges It wasn’t meant to turn out like this. Only a few months ago, when Donald Trump swept back into the White House, the story was one of fading US exceptionalism. The consensus view was that tariffs... 6th October 2025
Chief Economist's Note How much is too much? Thinking through triggers of the next fiscal crisis It is now widely acknowledged that the public finances of several advanced economies are on perilous ground. We have identified Italy, France, the United States, and the United Kingdom – the so-called... 29th September 2025
Chief Economist's Note Tariffs may stall trade growth, but China’s overcapacity is the bigger danger What will happen to global trade now that the contours of Donald Trump’s tariffs regime are starting to take shape? It’s a question that kept cropping up in talks with clients in Copenhagen last week... 22nd September 2025
Chief Economist's Note It’s the politics, stupid Another squall in the bond market appears to have blown itself out. The summer lull had been interrupted by a jump in long bond yields, triggering warnings about surging government borrowing costs and... 15th September 2025
Chief Economist's Note A fractured world - and a US own goal? Launching a book is never straightforward. It requires planning, persuasion – and sometimes a bit of luck. I have been fortunate on that front this past week with two events in China providing... 8th September 2025
Chief Economist's Note A post-summer catch-up With Europe still returning from the beach and the US gearing up for Labor Day, I’ll spare you a full note this week. But for those easing back into work, here’s a quick recap of the key developments... 27th August 2025
Chief Economist's Note US chip reversal highlights policy incoherence in a fractured world President Trump likes to tell us that the United States “holds all the cards” in the ongoing trade war. Judging by the surprisingly mild inflationary impact of tariffs so far – less than most... 18th August 2025
CE Insights America or China? As the global economy fractures, the world will have to choose Seemingly endless commentary has been devoted to the supposed death of globalisation. But as ever in economics, the story is not quite so simple. The popular narrative goes like this: tariffs first... 13th August 2025
Chief Economist's Note Trump, institutions and the deafening silence of the markets Late last week, Donald Trump did what he does best: lob a grenade into the machinery of government. In this case, the target was the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the body responsible for... 6th August 2025
