Global Markets Update How the war in Ukraine is challenging our views This Update discusses three ways in which the outbreak of war in Ukraine has called into question our asset allocation views. While the situation is fluid and the outlook especially uncertain, it also... 4th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update Lessons from past conflicts and crises The onset of other major conflicts and military-related crises have often seen global equity indices tumble, while moves in developed market government bond yields have depended on how energy prices... 4th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets War-induced rally in DM bonds may not be sustained While the war in Ukraine may well push down the yields of long-dated developed market government bonds further in the near term, we think that a sustained rally in bonds is unlikely unless the war... 2nd March 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Russia’s financial markets staring into the abyss New sanctions on Russia have led to a sharp plunge in the ruble, and an effective freeze of most of the country’s financial markets. We think that the outlook now depends mainly on the extent to which... 28th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update US yield curve is casting doubt on our equity vs. bond call Our view that the US stock market will outperform Treasuries again this year is being called into question by a flattening of the yield curve. Nonetheless, we are not anticipating that it will invert... 23rd February 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Taking stock of Russia/Ukraine tensions & market implications With tensions between Russia and Ukraine continuing, the risk of a conflict with far-reaching economic consequences remains uncomfortably high. This Update considers what the impact on global... 18th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Commodities & US equities: 1970s or mid-2010s? We suspect that the pattern of returns from commodities and US equities over the next few years will more closely resemble that in 2014-15 – positive from the US stock market, negative from... 11th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Assessing the risk of contagion from a slump in US equities One of our key calls for 2022 is that mid- and large-cap equities in the US will generally underperform those in other developed markets, and only fare about as well on average as those in emerging... 10th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The threat to Treasuries from inflation hysteresis We envisage an end to the markedly better performance of TIPS than Treasuries since inflation compensation rebounded from an initial, liquidity-distorted, slump at the start of the pandemic. But this... 2nd February 2022 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update We doubt US equities will underperform across the board We forecast that equities in other developed markets (DMs) will outperform US equities over the next couple of years. By contrast, we expect equities in many emerging markets (EMs) to underperform... 21st January 2022 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Our outlook for fx-hedged returns in 2022 When it comes to developed markets (DMs), we suspect that fx-hedged returns will be significantly better than unhedged returns for US dollar-based investors in foreign-currency-denominated assets. 17th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update Key financial market calls for 2022 We do not think the returns from many financial assets will be as good in 2022 as they were in 2021. For a start, we envisage a sell-off in government bonds in most places, reflecting the outlook for... 13th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update EM equities may continue to underperform in 2022-23 We think that emerging market (EM) equities will continue to underperform their developed market (DM) peers over the next couple of years, even if that underperformance is far less stark than it was... 13th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Case for US equity underperformance is looking strong Although mid- and large-cap equities have fared better in the US than the rest of the developed world in most years since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), we think the chances of it happening in... 10th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Revisiting our forecasts in light of the Fed After taking on board the Federal Reserve’s recent hawkish pivot, we now forecast that the central bank will raise its policy rate much more quickly than we had previously anticipated. This Update... 17th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update US REITs may outperform ordinary US equities The recent resilience of US real estate investment trusts (REITs) seems to reflect both easing concerns about the Omicron variant and a net decline in long-dated Treasury yields. Although we expect... 13th December 2021 · 4 mins read