Assessing the risk of contagion from a slump in US equities

One of our key calls for 2022 is that mid- and large-cap equities in the US will generally underperform those in other developed markets, and only fare about as well on average as those in emerging markets, as the Fed raises rates. Nonetheless, this is a call about relative performance, made in the context of our forecast that the S&P 500 will eke out a small gain this year. If, instead, it suffered a major drawdown, we don’t think major stock market indices outside the US would be spared.