Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (July 2025) The economy faces a prolonged period of weak growth as US tariffs and uncertainty over the future of the USMCA weigh on exports and investment. We forecast quarterly GDP growth at or below 1%... 17th July 2025 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Jun. 2025) The solid 0.6% m/m rise in retail sales in June and similar-sized gains in core (ex. autos) and control group sales should dispel any fears that overall consumer spending is faltering in response to... 17th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (July 2025) Our Emerging Markets Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Our base case is that EM growth will slow only modestly this year. But President Trump’s... 17th July 2025 · 1 min read
Japan Rapid Response Japan External Trade (June 25) While overall exports are still holding up well, those to the US are plunging and we think soft global demand will result in a further decline over the coming quarters 17th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Tariff Chart Pack (Jul. 2025) Based on the tariffs that are currently in place, the average US tariff rate is now about 15%, compared to 2.3% in 2024. Recent letters sent to US trade partners threaten to hike reciprocal tariff... 16th July 2025 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: a bumpy path to macro stability ahead The tension inherent in the Milei administration’s goals of using a strong exchange rate to lower inflation while trying to improve Argentina’s external balance sheet is becoming increasingly apparent... 16th July 2025 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (June 2025) The small rise in both industrial production and manufacturing output in June suggest that reciprocal tariffs are neither providing a boost nor suppressing domestic production. 16th July 2025 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s bumpy recovery to continue May’s activity figures suggest that South Africa’s economic recovery remains slow and bumpy. While industry appears to have fared better recently, consumer-facing sectors appear to be losing steam... 16th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (May) The increase in euro-zone industrial production in May confirms that the sector has been resilient to US tariffs so far and that may remain the case in the near term if, as we expect, Trump’s threat... 15th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ to cut further as property sector remains weak New Zealand’s housing market is still struggling to recover from its steep post-pandemic downturn. Although we still expect it to turn the corner in the coming months, the risk is that it will remain... 15th July 2025 · 5 mins read
China Rapid Response China GDP (Q2) & Activity (Jun. 2025) Official GDP data came in a touch weaker in Q2. But the figures still overstate the strength of growth by around 1.5%-pts. And the June activity data suggest that the quarter ended on a weak note... 15th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: Back into the tariff storm? Mexico’s government seems confident that it can negotiate an agreement to stave off President Trump’s threat of a 30% tariff that was delivered over the weekend. And even if the tariff came into force... 14th July 2025 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jun.) The acceleration in broad credit growth last month, to a 16-month high, is a positive sign for the outlook and reduces the risk of a sharp declaration in near-term economic activity. But this tailwind... 14th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Singapore GDP Q2 2025 (Advance estimate) Singapore’s economy rebounded sharply during the second quarter, but we doubt this resilience will last. We expect a broad-based slowdown in the coming quarters and continue to expect the central bank... 14th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: Egypt’s economic rebound – How secure is this recovery? 19th November 2025, 10:00AM GMT Faster growth, lower inflation, easing rates and a stronger currency – the signs point to Egypt pulling back from the brink. But has enough been done to lock in these gains?
