Europe Economics Update Tariffs will slow Swiss growth, but not halt it We think the surprisingly high tariff rate on Switzerland of 39% that the US announced yesterday is likely be negotiated down in future and, importantly, pharmaceutical goods still appear to be exempt... 1st August 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update New US tariff regime still not the end of the story President Trump’s latest flurry of tariffs implies that the US effective tariff rate will rise to about 18%, from 2.3% last year. That is a little higher than we assumed and so presents modest... 1st August 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (July) The weak July manufacturing PMIs out of Emerging Europe suggest that industry remains a drag on regional growth, and we expect that incoming tariffs will keep external demand conditions subdued over... 1st August 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: CPI data signal green light for August rate cut Australian CPI data released this week will have gone a long way toward assuaging the RBA's concerns about lingering price pressures in the economy. And although retail sales picked up strongly in... 1st August 2025 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Asia Manufacturing PMIs (July) The July PMI readings for most countries in Asia were subdued and we continue to expect activity in Asia’s export-oriented manufacturing sectors to struggle in the coming months. And with inflation... 1st August 2025 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Jul. 25) China’s economy slowed in Q2, despite industrial activity holding up well in the face of US tariffs. With US-China ties improving, we don’t think tariffs will be as significant of a drag on growth as... 31st July 2025 · 0 mins read
US Rapid Response US Personal Income & Spending (June 2025) The above-target rise in core PCE prices in June, upward revisions to previous months’ data and the sharp rise in core goods inflation will do little to ease the Fed’s concerns about tariff-driven... 31st July 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (May 2025) The back-to-back GDP declines in April and May look slightly less concerning in light of June’s preliminary estimate showing a 0.1% m/m gain, suggesting the earlier weakness was partly a hangover from... 31st July 2025 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response Hong Kong GDP (Q2 Preliminary) Note: We are resending this Response due to a technical error. Apologies for any inconvenience caused. Plunge in HIBOR boosting consumption growth Hong Kong’s GDP growth surprised to the upside... 31st July 2025 · 2 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Taiwan GDP (Q2 2025, Adv. Estimate) Taiwan’s economy recorded another quarter of strong growth in Q2, of 3.1% q/q, on the back of a boom in exports which more than offset a further slowdown in domestic demand. This pace of growth is... 31st July 2025 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia GDP (Q2 2025, Flash Estimate) Saudi Arabia’s flash estimate of Q2 GDP showed that the economy grew by 2.1% q/q, an improvement on the 1.1% expansion recorded in the first quarter, largely on the back of the unwinding of oil... 31st July 2025 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (Jul. 2025) The better-than-expected Caixin services PMI reading for July only partly makes up for the weakness in the rest of the survey data. The big picture is still that economic momentum looks to have cooled... 31st July 2025 (Updated 5th August 2025) · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Retail Sales (Jun./Q2 2025) The solid pickup in retail sales in June doesn’t detract from the fact that goods spending across Q2 was rather lacklustre. That being the case, the data won’t stand in the way of the RBA cutting... 31st July 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jun. 25) The rebound in industrial production in June confirms that Japan’s economy is shrugging off trade tensions and should prompt the Bank of Japan to revise up their forecasts for GDP growth at its... 31st July 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US GDP (Q2 2025) The 3.0% annualised gain in second-quarter GDP overstates the economy’s underlying strength, as it was largely driven by a 30% slump in imports as pre-tariff stockpiling unwound. The more worrying... 30th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Jul. 2025) Economies across Sub-Saharan Africa will be able to cope with higher US tariffs. And better terms of trade for most countries mean that painful currency adjustments are unlikely. That alongside lower... 30th July 2025 · 0 mins read
