Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico’s core inflation worries, Colombia’s imbalances The rise in Mexican core inflation last month looks worrying on the face of it, but it was driven by excise duty hikes, which Banxico is likely to look through it. A 25bp interest rate cut at the... 13th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Event China Drop-In: Key takeaways from the NPC and the new Five-Year Plan 6th March 2026, 8:00AM GMT March begins with a pivotal week for China watchers as the government unveils its economic targets for 2026 alongside the 15th Five-Year Plan.
UK Economics Weekly What has the government ever done for us? The government has been supporting both economic and employment growth over the last year, while private sector activity has been weak and private sector employment has fallen. But this isn't the... 13th February 2026 · 10 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Bundesbank embracing joint borrowing? Comments by Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel this week suggest the German central bank has abandoned its long-standing opposition to EU joint borrowing. But while we might see some more jointly... 13th February 2026 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone productivity to remain slow Data released this morning confirm that euro-zone productivity growth remained sluggish last year. While productivity is already benefitting from AI in the US, we expect it to stay slow in the euro... 13th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukrainian elections? Tisza manifesto, Romania GDP Reports this week suggest that Ukraine has started to plan for elections and a referendum on a peace agreement, but most opinion polls suggest Ukrainians won't be supportive of an agreement that cedes... 13th February 2026 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly US trade deal looking more palatable The fact sheet for the India-US trade deal was published at the start of this week, but by Wednesday it had been quietly revised. Two key changes stand out and improve the deal’s economic viability... 13th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australia still facing elevated capacity pressures Data released this week reinforce the need for the RBA to tighten policy settings. Provisional figures suggest that private consumption growth accelerated in Q4 and is running above the pace... 13th February 2026 · 6 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Feb. 26) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The economy will continue to grow at a healthy pace, which should ensure that the labour market... 12th February 2026 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Feb 2026) We expect GDP growth to be little more than 1% this year as household spending and investment remain subdued amid the immigration crackdown and start of CUSMA renegotiation. Despite soft employment... 12th February 2026 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Dec./Q4 2025) The disappointing 0.1% q/q gain in GDP in Q4 (consensus, BoE and CE forecast 0.2%) suggests the economy still has very little momentum. This supports our forecast for GDP growth to slow from 1.3% in... 12th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (February 2026) Our Emerging Markets Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. EM GDP growth will slow to ~3.5% in 2026-27, the weakest rate in the past three decades... 11th February 2026 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Would a stock market crash cause a global recession? Historically, stock market declines have coincided with a wide range of economic outcomes, but in adverse cases the causality almost always runs from the economy to markets rather than the reverse... 11th February 2026 · 22 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Will Poland’s “Goldilocks” conditions last? Poland’s economy is currently exhibiting features considered characteristic of a “Goldilocks economy” – solid GDP growth, inflation close to target, as well as a current account near balance. And we... 11th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ will start normalising policy in Q2 2027 The RBNZ will leave rates on hold at 2.25% at its meeting on 18th February. With the latest data suggesting that the balance of risks to the economic outlook has shifted somewhat to the upside, we’re... 11th February 2026 · 4 mins read
