Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: External headwinds still not doing much damage There are mounting signs that higher US tariffs are starting to weigh on exports. However, with business investment holding up and inflation still strong, the financial markets are coming around to... 22nd August 2025 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (August 2025) India is not anywhere near as dependent on final US demand as many other EMs are but a total tariff of 50% would be large enough to have a material impact on GDP growth. If it sticks, the resulting... 21st August 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Aug. 2025) The rises in August’s composite activity PMI and services output prices balances marginally increase the chances that the Bank of England will leave interest rates on hold at 4.00% in November. 21st August 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Flash PMIs (Aug. 25) While the strength in the composite PMI in August confirms that Japan’s economy is proving resilient to global trade tensions, there are early signs that external demand is weakening in earnest. 21st August 2025 · 2 mins read
Event UK Budget Roundtable – How will the economy and markets take the Chancellor’s second Budget? 12th November 2025, 9:00AM GMT Will the Chancellor’s second Budget be as big and as bad for the economy as her first? Will it dampen or ignite the gilt market’s fiscal fears?
Japan Rapid Response Japan External Trade (July 25) The July trade statistics suggest that higher US tariffs are still not having a major impact on Japan’s overall export performance, but we expect softer external demand to result in slower export... 20th August 2025 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Aug. 2025) We now expect growth to average 2.0% annualised in the second half of the year, before slowing slightly in 2026. The recent slowdown in employment growth and limited pass-through of tariffs to... 19th August 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK GDP revisions don’t alter scope for future growth or rate cuts The small upward revision to the level of real GDP doesn’t mean the economy will be any stronger in the future. And the downward revisions to some measures of inflation won’t influence the Bank of... 19th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel: GDP contraction should prove short-lived The unexpected contraction in the Israeli economy in Q2 amid the war with Iran should reverse this quarter, and so we think it is unlikely that the Bank of Israel will cut interest rates at its... 18th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Property downturn to weigh on Korea’s economy Weak investment will remain a drag on Korea’s economy over the coming quarters, as a prolonged downturn in the property sector continues to weigh on construction. 18th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Chile GDP (Q2 2025) The Chilean economy isn’t as weak as the slowdown in GDP growth to 0.4% q/q would suggest; there was a large drag from net trade while domestic demand remained very strong. This, alongside the... 18th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Tourists adjusting timing of holidays but not location Despite concerns that over-crowding and heatwaves might reduce tourism to southern Europe, trips to the region are growing at a faster rate than in northern Europe. Instead, tourism has been growing... 18th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Thailand Q2 GDP (August 2025) Economic growth in Thailand slowed in the second quarter of the year, and we think the economy will struggle over the coming months as weaker exports, slower government spending and weak private... 18th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Colombia GDP (Q2 2025) The weaker-than-expected 0.5% q/q expansion in Colombia’s economy is unlikely to change the central bank’s thinking and we remain comfortable with our above-consensus interest rate forecast. 15th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: All eyes on Alaska as Trump and Putin take centre stage The scheduled meeting between presidents Trump and Putin later today has focused attention on whether there will be any positive news to end the war in Ukraine, but developments over the course of... 15th August 2025 · 7 mins read
