India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (May 2025) India’s economy is emerging from its soft patch. Headline CPI inflation should remain close to the RBI’s 4% target over the coming months, enabling the central bank to continue easing monetary policy... 22nd May 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (May 2025) The euro-zone’s flash PMIs for May suggest that manufacturing output continues to be supported by the front-running of US tariffs. But the bigger picture is that the services sector weakened... 22nd May 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (May 2025) Despite the modest rebound in the composite activity PMI in May, at face value it is consistent with the bumper 0.7% q/q rise in GDP in Q1 being followed by a 0.2% q/q fall in Q2. But signs of some... 22nd May 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Flash PMIs (May 25) The ongoing weakness in activity, coupled with softer price pressures, will keep the Bank of Japan in wait and watch mode in the near term. 22nd May 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Flash PMIs (May 2025) The step-down in business activity this month, combined with signs of easing price pressures, supports our view that the RBA’s easing cycle has further to run. 22nd May 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (May 2025) The near-term outlook for Canada is a little bleak. After a solid first quarter, we expect GDP growth to be muted as the imposition of US tariffs and risk of more to come weighs on exports, consumer... 21st May 2025 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ Watch: RBNZ will hand down another dovish 25bp cut The RBNZ is all but certain to cut its cash rate by 25bp, to 3.25%, at its meeting ending on 28th May. With the recovery showing signs of faltering, the labour market remaining weak, and underlying... 21st May 2025 · 6 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan External Trade (April 25) With US tariffs weighing on Japanese exports, net trade will continue to act as a drag on activity in the near term. 21st May 2025 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (May. 2025) We assume that the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs will become permanent, keeping tariffs at 10% for most countries except China, which will face a steeper 40% levy. A recession should be avoided... 20th May 2025 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will cut rates to 3.35% by year-end When the Reserve Bank of Australia cut rates by 25bp at its meeting today, it signalled greater confidence that it had brought inflation under control, while sounding increasingly concerned that... 20th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Chile GDP (Q1 2025) The stronger-than-expected 0.7% q/q expansion in Chile’s economy in Q1 on the back of robust domestic demand supports our view that Chile’s central bank will leave its policy rate on hold for a bit... 19th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Thailand Q1 GDP (May 2025) Economic growth in Thailand accelerated in Q1 but we think growth over the rest of the year will be rather weak as the boost from stronger public consumption is likely to be offset by weakness in... 19th May 2025 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update China Activity & Spending (Apr. 2025) After an improvement in March, China’s economy looks to have slowed again last month, with firms and households turning more cautious due to the trade war. While the recent US-China tariff de... 19th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia GDP (Q1 2025) & Consumer Prices (Apr.) The sharp slowdown in Russian GDP growth from 4.5% y/y in Q4 to 1.4% in Q1 is consistent with a sharp fall in output and suggests that the economy may be heading for a much harder landing than we had... 16th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Housing market weakness becomes harder to ignore The softening housing market has mostly flown under the radar, but that is soon likely to change following April’s data, which showed house prices taking another sharp leg down. Combined with the... 16th May 2025 · 6 mins read
