Latin America Rapid Response Brazil GDP (Q4 2025) Continued strong export growth supported Brazil’s economy in Q4 but, at 0.1% q/q, GDP growth remained tepid. Geopolitical tensions and higher global energy prices probably won’t prevent the central... 3rd March 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (Feb. 2026) The essentially unchanged level of the ISM Manufacturing Index in February, after the prior month’s surge, suggests that the domestic factory sector is benefiting from stronger global conditions tied... 2nd March 2026 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The Iran conflict and spillovers to the GCC Iran’s strikes on the Gulf economies have punctured the perceived security and stability of the region. This will lead to disruptions to non-oil activity in the near term and, if the attacks persist... 2nd March 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Scenarios for a post-Khamenei Iran The death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in US and Israeli air strikes on Saturday has created enormous uncertainty about Iran’s political future, but the path that Iran takes will have... 2nd March 2026 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update How the Iran shock may affect the euro-zone The jump in energy prices since the weekend’s military attacks is a mild stagflationary shock for the euro-zone. If the increase is sustained, it would add around 0.3 percentage points to inflation... 2nd March 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money and Lending (Jan. 2026) January’s money and lending data support other evidence that suggests the economy strengthened at the start of the year. The growing risk is that an inflationary shock from the events in the Middle... 2nd March 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey GDP (Q4 2025) Although Turkish GDP growth slowed sharply to 0.4% q/q in Q4, growth appears increasingly unbalanced, with consumer spending and imports strong, while exports fell. Taken together with the rise in oil... 2nd March 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Some positive signs despite decline in GDP The 0.6% annualised contraction in fourth-quarter GDP stole the headlines this week but the details were arguably much more encouraging than the third quarter, when GDP rose by 2.4%. Thanks partly to... 2nd March 2026 · 4 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Feb 26) China’s economy expanded by just 3.1% in 2025. We expect growth to remain subdued this year too. While the recent change in US tariffs has improved the export outlook for China, we’re expecting less... 27th February 2026 · 0 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly New tariffs, Mexico’s World Cup fears, Brazil GDP Brazil has seen one of the largest falls in the tariff rate applied by the US after the Supreme Court over-turned IEEPA tariffs, but it's to unlikely to have a major impact on exports. For Mexico... 27th February 2026 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update India’s revamped GDP: slightly smaller but growth story intact India’s revamped national accounts data show that the economy in nominal terms is slightly smaller than previously thought, although the big picture remains intact. Relative to GDP, the budget and... 27th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Q4 2025) The 0.6% annualised decline in fourth-quarter GDP was not as bad as it looked, with most of the drag coming from weaker inventory building, whereas domestic demand growth rebounded to more than 2%... 27th February 2026 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly NPC and Five-Year Plan: What to watch China's leadership will lay out its economic policy agenda for this year, as well as its goals for the 15th Five Year Plan period (2026-30), at the National People's Congress which kicks off on... 27th February 2026 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Case for near-term rate hike strengthening While the escalating tensions between China and Japan will provide a small drag on output this quarter, the January activity data were encouraging and suggest that GDP growth will pick up this quarter... 27th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Aussie firms on capex spree, Ardern joins Kiwi exodus The evidence that the Australian economy is operating with excess demand continues to pile up. We learnt this week that private capex growth surged to a two-year high in Q4. Moreover, with firms... 27th February 2026 · 5 mins read
