Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA's work not done yet The jump in Australia's unemployment rate and the recent plunge in auction clearance rates suggest that the upside risks to our interest rate forecasts have diminished. Nonetheless, with underlying... 22nd May 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Consumer Confidence (May 2026) The drop in consumer confidence since the Iran war began, together with the weakness in the business surveys, suggests that the euro-zone economy might contract in Q2. 21st May 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Flash PMIs (May 2026) By suggesting that weaker activity may be starting to restrain price rises, May’s Flash PMIs are the third set of figures in three days that suggest the Bank of England does not need to rush to raise... 21st May 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Flash PMIs (May 26) The composite PMI suggests that economic activity is softening rather than collapsing, while inflation could soon become as strong as it was after the Ukraine War. 21st May 2026 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan External Trade (Apr. 26) Most of the recent strength in exports reflects soaring export prices, while the closure of the Strait of Hormuz resulted in a record plunge in crude oil imports. T 21st May 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (May 2026) Our Emerging Europe Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The energy shock presents a headwind to most of Emerging Europe by worsening... 20th May 2026 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (May 2026) If energy prices gradually ease in the second half of this year, as in our baseline, GDP growth should average 2.1% this year and pick up to 2.3% next year. Higher gasoline prices will weigh on... 20th May 2026 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ to stay put, while maintaining policy optionality The RBNZ is likely to leave rates on hold at its meeting next Wednesday, while stressing that it stands prepared to tighten policy if inflationary pressures show signs of persistence. In our baseline... 20th May 2026 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (May '26) The Gulf economies are set for their steepest contraction since the early 1980s this year. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has led to sharp falls in hydrocarbon production, even in those countries... 19th May 2026 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update US tariffs have hit euro-zone exports The front-running of US tariffs gave a small boost to euro-zone exports and GDP last year. But now that the dust is settling, euro-zone exports to the US are significantly lower than they were before... 19th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Event Asia Drop-In: What would $150 oil mean for Asian economies and markets? 28th May 2026, 9:00AM BST The risk of a substantial rise in oil prices increases with every day that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.
Africa Economics Update Weak naira providing little boost to industry The expansion of Nigeria’s domestic refining capacity has helped to boost the current account surplus and allowed the central bank to rebuild its foreign exchange reserves. But the sharp weakening of... 18th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Chile GDP (Q1 2026) Chile’s economy contracted by a larger-than-expected 0.3% q/q in Q1, but the central bank will be more worried about rising inflation. And while our base case is that the policy rate will remain on... 18th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel: Q1 GDP drop keeps door for rate cut open Israel’s economy already appears to have picked up following the war-induced fall in GDP in Q1. But even so, the drop in output last quarter, taken together with the strength of the shekel and weak... 18th May 2026 · 2 mins read
