UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Jun. & Q2 2025) The unexpectedly strong 0.4% m/m rise in GDP in June (consensus and CE forecast 0.1%) and 0.3% q/q gain in Q2 are more likely to be due to a temporary burst of growth rather than a sign of a... 14th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia GDP (Q2 2025) The slowdown in GDP growth in Russia to 1.1% y/y in Q2 suggests that the economy may have narrowly avoided a technical recession, but the economy is clearly struggling amidst imbalances that have... 13th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: riding the US data centre boom Mexico’s exports of AI-related products to the US have surged and now rival its key auto exports. While there may be a degree of tariff front-running at play, the boom in US data centre investment... 13th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Weaker data support September rate cut The weaker housing and trade data released this week support our call for a September rate cut, a view which investors are beginning to come round to. 8th August 2025 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Exports resilient despite trade war The trade deficit narrowed to $60.2bn in June, from $71.5bn. This was the smallest deficit in almost two years, with a normalisation in pharmaceutical goods imports causing total imports to decline by... 8th August 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: More US tariff threats; construction sector Provided it stands the test of time, the deal agreed between the US and EU means that the bloc should be exempt from the 100% tariff that President Trump has threatened on semiconductor imports, as... 8th August 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Trump-Putin meeting, chip tariffs, hawkish CNB The touted Trump-Putin meeting next week has re-focused attention on efforts to bring the war in Ukraine to an end, but we are sceptical much will be achieved given Putin’s maximalist territorial... 8th August 2025 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update US tariffs just one of German carmakers’ problems German carmakers’ recent disappointing earnings reports are as much about their continued struggles in China as US tariffs. And though sales in Europe have been more encouraging recently, that is... 7th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank easing cycle will be slow and short Next week, we expect Norges Bank to leave the policy rate unchanged at 4.25% but reiterate that it is likely to loosen policy later this year. We forecast two 25bp cuts by year-end. 7th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Aug. 2025) Economic growth has been fairly resilient to tariffs so far and, as long as tariffs stay around the 15% agreed in the EU-US trade deal, the hit to activity should be small. But growth will be sluggish... 7th August 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (June) The sharp drop in German industrial production in June and the big downward revision to the figures for May mean that, rather than holding up well in the face of tariffs as the data previously... 7th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Further thoughts on US tariffs on Switzerland With Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter in the US trying to head off the 39% tariff, this note answers some key questions on the topic. Overall, we think Switzerland has limited room to offer... 6th August 2025 · 6 mins read
US Economics Update Will healthcare continue to boost payrolls growth? There are several headwinds to healthcare & social assistance employment that suggest it is unlikely to continue growing at its recent rapid pace, although we doubt payroll gains in the sector will... 6th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update Côte d’Ivoire: bright prospects, stormy politics Côte d’Ivoire’s economic fortunes appear good, and we expect growth to accelerate, underpinned by strong cocoa, oil and gold exports. However, the country’s sizeable sovereign debt servicing costs and... 6th August 2025 · 5 mins read
