Global Economics Update The implications of Trump’s take on the Panama Canal President Trump’s threats to retake ownership of the Panama Canal reflects its importance for US trade and the country’s strategic interests. It’s possible that these threats are simply another... 23rd January 2025 · 5 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (January 2025) After a stellar run, India’s economy has entered a softer patch that will continue for a few more quarters. We think that will portend an underperformance in local equities relative to other major... 22nd January 2025 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s activity data signals strong end to 2024 South Africa’s activity data for November points to a strong end to last year, underpinned by the mining and retail sectors. We think GDP will expand by an above-consensus 2.3% in 2025. 22nd January 2025 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s economy set for a strong rebound Egypt’s economy has struggled over the past year due to the effects of a weak pound, high inflation, and tighter fiscal and monetary policy, but there have been signs recently that a recovery is... 22nd January 2025 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update What to expect from India’s FY25/26 Union Budget Hopes that Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will deliver a big fiscal package to get the economy out of its recent soft patch in the upcoming Union Budget are likely to be disappointed. Some more... 22nd January 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update What to make of Trump’s latest trade plans? The “America First Trade Policy” White House memorandum makes it clear that tariffs are coming, although we still have little clarity on the timing. There are some signs that a universal tariff could... 21st January 2025 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Jan. 2025) The economy continues to do well with GDP growing strongly, employment growth solid and core inflation pressures easing again. We are concerned, however, that the Trump administration’s policies will... 21st January 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus French public debt: trouble brewing Developments over the past year have put France’s public debt on a steeper upward path, with the debt ratio now likely to rise from 113% of GDP last year to around 126% by 2030. We see little chance... 21st January 2025 · 14 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank’s surveys show steady improvement The Bank of Canada’s latest business and consumer surveys support our view that GDP growth will pick-up this quarter and suggest there are some upside risks to our forecast for another 75bp of... 20th January 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Government spending may have saved the UK economy in Q4 We know that the economy flatlined or suffered a small contraction in Q4. But that would have been much worse if not for what appears to be a rise in government spending, which will play an important... 20th January 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: The surprising coming shift in UK/US yields A more favourable outlook for inflation in the UK than in the US suggests to us that the bigger falls in UK gilt yields than US yields this week will continue throughout 2025. If we’re right, that... 17th January 2025 · 7 mins read
US Rapid Response Industrial Production (Dec. 2024) The strong rise in industrial production in December is consistent with the recent improvement in the survey evidence. However, we do not think this marks the beginning of a sustained recovery in the... 17th January 2025 · 1 min read
