Global Economics Update Caution is warranted on defence-driven growth The latest IMF analysis broadly corroborates the conclusion we reached a year ago that higher defence spending will not turbocharge economic growth. The near-term boost to output will be smaller than... 16th April 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (Mar 2026) First-quarter manufacturing growth was the strongest in more than four years, but that largely reflects a rebound from a particularly weak fourth quarter. With higher energy prices set to be a drag on... 16th April 2026 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Will the war trigger a debt crisis in Dubai? The Iran war has already caused tourist arrivals to Dubai to collapse and, over a longer horizon, it could dampen the Emirate’s appeal to expatriate workers and firms seeking to set up in the region... 16th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update How could non-energy shortages affect supply chains? In the coming months, depressed shipments of non-energy commodities through the Strait of Hormuz risk disrupting some supply chains using aluminium, plastics and synthetic rubber. The risks are... 16th April 2026 · 8 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (Apr. 2026) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Many major Latin American economies have received a terms-of-trade boost from the... 16th April 2026 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Feb. 2026) The surprisingly strong 0.5% m/m in February (consensus forecast 0.1%, Capital Economics 0.2%) and the upward revision to January GDP from 0.0% m/m to +0.1% m/m suggests the economy went into the... 16th April 2026 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China GDP (Q1) & Activity (Mar. 2026) The March activity data point to some loss of economic momentum last month. Seasonal distortions are partly to blame, however, and growth accelerated in Q1 overall. We think growth will soften a bit... 16th April 2026 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Weak monsoon would compound Iran war impact The weaker-than-normal monsoon that is now being forecast by experts for this year threatens to compound the impact of the Middle East conflict on India’s economy. Crop yields could come under... 15th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing & Wholesale Sales (Feb 2026) The healthy rebound in both manufacturing and wholesale sales in February was expected given the end of seasonal retooling at various automakers, and supports the view that GDP edged higher that month... 15th April 2026 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Business investment boom not on the cards The recent surge in machinery orders seems to vindicate concerns by some BoJ Board members that the Bank is falling behind the curve. However, other indicators are less upbeat and with the energy cost... 15th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is Orbánomics to blame for Hungary’s economic woes? The economic policy mix of the outgoing government of Viktor Orbán can partly explain the underperformance of Hungary’s economy over the past few years. And the change of government and the prospect... 14th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update War dealing a heavy blow to the Gulf economies Timely indicators underscore the severe hit dealt to the Gulf economies by the war, with sharp declines in oil output alongside clear weakness in non-hydrocarbon sectors. Even if the war ends soon, we... 14th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Putting the euro-zone’s energy price shock in context In our baseline scenario, the euro-zone’s energy import bill rises by 0.4% of GDP this year, which is not unusually high. In our adverse scenario it increases by three times this amount, which is high... 14th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update MAS tightens policy as oil price shock lifts inflation outlook Singapore’s central bank today tightened monetary policy and raised its inflation forecast for this year in response to the crisis in the Middle East and the resulting surge in global energy prices... 14th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s election: your questions answered This Update answers the questions that we received during our Drop-in on Hungary’s election result. (An on-demand recording is available here.) The primary implication of the opposition Tisza party’s... 13th April 2026 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update High energy prices a double-edged sword Latin America as a whole is a net beneficiary from higher energy prices, but the terms of trade boost is limited (or in Mexico’s case more than offset) by a lack of domestic refining capacity. The... 13th April 2026 · 5 mins read
