US Economics Weekly Iran war hits home at gasoline price surpasses $4 The consequences of the Iran war became even more conspicuous for consumers this week, with the national average gasoline price rising above $4 a gallon for the first time since 2022. Thankfully, the... 2nd April 2026 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly De-escalation short-lived; Egypt committed to orthodoxy Hopes of a de-escalation between the US and Iran had been building earlier this week but were quashed by President Trump's address to the nation on Wednesday night. He said that the US would “hit them... 2nd April 2026 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Manufacturers hit, Korean outflows, BOK and RBI meetings The March PMIs show that the energy shock appears to be hitting manufacturers in Asia, though it is more evident in higher input prices than in falling activity. Meanwhile, foreign outflows from Korea... 2nd April 2026 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA trade & budget data, SSA activity holds up Trade and budget data released this week suggest that South Africa headed into the energy price shock in decent shape. But we are concerned about the risks that a longer war could pose to the fiscal... 2nd April 2026 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Italy’s borrowing costs in the spotlight again The rise in energy prices and the slight loss of popularity of Giorgia Meloni’s government have caused Italy’s bond yields to rise more than France's since the start of the Iran conflict. We now think... 2nd April 2026 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart pack - Iran Conflict Edition (April 2026) The impact of the surge in energy prices on the global economy will depend on the extent of any disruption to energy flows, which remains highly uncertain. Europe and Asia are more exposed than the US... 2nd April 2026 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Albanese enters crisis management mode We are sending this Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly one day earlier than usual because our Singapore office is closed on Good Friday, 3rd April. The Australian government's decision to slash... 2nd April 2026 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Case for April rate hike strengthening We are sending this Japan Economics Weekly one day earlier than usual because our Singapore office is closed on Good Friday, 3rd April. Hawkish signals by BoJ policymakers coupled with the resilience... 2nd April 2026 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (Mar. 2026) The slight rise in the ISM Manufacturing Index in March masks the unease among firms evident in the breakdown, with new orders dropping back and supplier delivery times lengthening. The further rise... 1st April 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update How would fuel rationing affect Australia’s economy? Australia’s supply of petroleum products will dwindle over the coming weeks, which could prompt the government to impose fuel rationing. It seems likely that any restrictions will initially target... 1st April 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ won’t spring into action just yet Financial markets are betting that the RBNZ will deliver its first rate hike in Q3, with aggressive tightening to follow thereafter. However, we suspect they are getting ahead of themselves, not least... 1st April 2026 · 7 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Tankan (Q1 26) The Tankan survey showed that firms are shrugging off the energy shock caused by the Iran war, which should encourage the BoJ to hike rates at this month’s meeting. 1st April 2026 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Time to bet against the American consumer? The backdrop of a struggling labour market, already low saving and weak consumer confidence makes it more likely that households will respond to latest real income shock by cutting spending, rather... 31st March 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Apr. 2026) This Europe Chart Pack builds on the analysis and scenario forecasts published in the Global Economic Outlook (see here) to provide more detail on how the Iran War could influence inflation, GDP... 31st March 2026 · 1 min read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Jan. 2026) The rise in GDP in January and projected gain in February leaves first-quarter growth roughly in line with the Bank of Canada’s most recent estimates. While this is still consistent with the Bank... 31st March 2026 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Mar. 26) China’s growth picked up at the start of the year, thanks to a boost from stronger fiscal spending and exports. This year’s Budget suggests that this fiscal support won't last. As a net energy... 31st March 2026 · 0 mins read
