Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Bracing for headwinds Headwinds to growth will remain strong in 2025 and our forecasts lie below the consensus. While more protectionist US trade policy will hit China and Mexico, the impact for most is likely to be... 19th December 2024 · 27 mins read
Global Economics Update Will Trump bring a halt to US outperformance? Donald Trump’s policies will be a net drag on US GDP growth over the next couple of years, but we doubt that his re-election will prevent the US from remaining the world’s pre-eminent global economy... 19th December 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Weathering geopolitical storms and tariff threats We expect 2025 to be another year of reasonably healthy global GDP growth and a continued normalisation of monetary policy. To the extent that tariffs hurt the global economy, the damage will be less... 19th December 2024 · 44 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Dec. 24) Our China Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The economy should post decent growth in Q4 off the back of more forceful fiscal support. The... 19th December 2024 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy to underwhelm in 2025 Saudi Arabia’s constrained approach to oil policy is here to stay until April and, coupled with the turn to fiscal consolidation, means growth will pick up by less than others expect in 2025. 19th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand GDP (Q3 2024) With activity in freefall, we expect the RBNZ to keep cutting rates aggressively over the year ahead. 18th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Dec. 2024) Falling inflation and looser monetary policy will help GDP growth to accelerate across Sub-Saharan Africa next year. A shift towards trade protectionism in the US will hurt certain sectors in certain... 18th December 2024 · 0 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Strong start to 2025 unlikely to be sustained The near-term economic outlook has brightened, with lower interest rates feeding through and consumption benefitting from the recent strong pace of real income growth. That should help to drive... 18th December 2024 · 14 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Growth under pressure amid persistent inflation Slowing growth across Emerging Europe in recent quarters has set a downbeat tone heading into 2025. With domestic and external headwinds remaining strong, we think that most economies in the region... 17th December 2024 · 22 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook A brighter outlook but a fiscal shadow Falling inflation and looser monetary policy will help GDP growth to accelerate across Sub-Saharan Africa next year. A shift towards trade protectionism in the US will hurt certain sectors in certain... 17th December 2024 · 19 mins read
US Rapid Response Industrial Production (Nov. 2024) The fall in industrial production in November, despite the partial reversal of the earlier temporary disruptions caused by the hurricanes and strike at Boeing, highlights that the factory sector is... 17th December 2024 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (December 2024) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The region recorded robust growth in Q3 but we think that tight policy, worsening... 17th December 2024 · 1 min read
China Economic Outlook China Outlook: Stimulus bounce will be short-lived China’s leadership has signalled that policy will be loosened further, which will provide a near-term prop to activity. But we still expect China’s growth to slow next year, because of the more... 17th December 2024 · 16 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (December 2024) After a stellar run, India’s economy has entered a softer patch that will continue for a few more quarters. We think that will portend an underperformance in local equities relative to other major... 17th December 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Ifo Survey (December 2024) The Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) remained deep in recessionary territory in December. While the survey has overstated the weakness in the economy this year, the outlook is quite poor and we think... 17th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs probably overstating extent of US outperformance The latest batch of PMIs suggests that the US economy is growing strongly while Europe is stagnating or contracting. The US economy is no doubt growing more strongly than its advanced economy peers... 16th December 2024 · 2 mins read
