Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Nov. 2024) The larger-than-expected decline in GDP in November and flash estimate of only a moderate rebound in December suggest that growth was 1.6% annualised last quarter, a little lower than we and the Bank... 31st January 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Jan. 2025) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economies in Eastern Europe picked up a bit of momentum at the end of 2024, but we don’t... 31st January 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Chancellor won’t “kickstart” growth, but LT outlook rosy While we doubt the Chancellor’s plans to “kickstart economic growth” will lift the economy out of its recent malaise in the coming quarters, at the margin her strategy of growing the supply side of... 31st January 2025 · 4 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Jan. 25) Our China Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The economy should accelerate over the near-term, driven by consumption-boosting policy support. But... 31st January 2025 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Can policymakers bring back the good times? We doubt that Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will deliver a big stimulus package to get the economy out of its recent soft patch in tomorrow's Union Budget announcement. That will leave the onus... 31st January 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Activity & Labour Market (Dec. 24) & Tokyo CPI (Jan. 25) The end-month data rush vindicates the Bank’s decision to lift its policy rate last week and suggests that further tightening over the coming months is likely. 31st January 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update EC survey points to stagnation and risks to inflation January’s EC survey points to continued weak GDP growth at best. While it also suggests that there are some upside risks to inflation in the near term, firms’ employment expectations and labour... 30th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB has much further to go It’s clear that after cutting its deposit rate from 3% to 2.75% today, the ECB expects to reduce rates further in the coming months. We think that weak growth and inflation will mean that the Bank has... 30th January 2025 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US GDP (Q4 2024) The 2.3% annualised gain in fourth-quarter GDP was a little weaker than the consensus estimate at 2.6%, but expectations would have come down a little after the December advance economic indicators... 30th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response ECB Policy Announcement (January 2024) The ECB’s decision to cut its deposit rate from 3% to 2.75% today came as no surprise and the accompanying statement implies that more cuts are coming, as is widely anticipated. We think the Bank will... 30th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico GDP (Q4 2024 Provisional) The much larger-than-expected 0.6% q/q drop in Mexico’s GDP in Q4 is likely to strengthen the argument for a 50bp interest rate cut, to 9.50%, at next week’s Banxico meeting. That now looks like the... 30th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4 2024) & Unemployment (Dec.) The stagnation in euro-zone GDP in Q4 supports our view that the region’s economic prospects are worse than most think. We expect this to prompt the ECB to cut interest rates by more this year than is... 30th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany, France, Italy GDP (Q4 2024) With national data now available for all larger euro-zone countries, it looks as if GDP growth in the region slowed to 0.1% q/q or even zero in Q4 last year. (Euro-zone GDP data are out at 10.00 GMT.)... 30th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Jan. 2025) Falling inflation and looser monetary policy will help GDP growth to accelerate across Sub-Saharan Africa this year. A shift towards trade protectionism in the US will hurt certain sectors in some... 30th January 2025 · 0 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia GDP (Q4 2024, Flash Est.) Saudi Arabia’s flash estimate of GDP showed that the economy grew by just 0.3% q/q in the final quarter of 2024, marking the slowest rate of expansion in a year. We think GDP growth will accelerate... 30th January 2025 · 2 mins read
