Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: EU still “in for tariffs”, ECB set for another rate cut Though President Trump reserved his main tariff threats for others this week, he still complained about the EU’s trade surplus with the US and suggested the bloc is “in for tariffs”. We think US... 24th January 2025 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Update The end is in sight for the Riksbank We think that next week the Riksbank will cut its policy rate for the final time this cycle, reducing it from 2.5% to 2.25%. After that, we do not see a need for policymakers to loosen policy any... 24th January 2025 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Jan. 2025) Despite the small rise in the composite activity PMI from 50.4 in December last year to 50.9 in January, at face value it is still consistent with GDP stagnating at the start of Q1 after the economy... 24th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Focus Strong dollar is a problem for tomorrow Having hit a record high, we expect the trade-weighted US dollar to climb further in 2025. While the short-term danger that a strong dollar poses to the world economy tends to be overblown, the bigger... 24th January 2025 · 16 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (January 2025) We expect data released next week to show that the euro-zone economy grew by only 0.1% q/q in Q4, and January’s PMIs point to a similarly poor performance at the start of Q1 . 24th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Taiwan GDP (Q4 first estimate) Taiwan’s economy picked up in Q4, and we expect GDP growth to remain robust over the coming quarters, helped by continued strong growth in information and communication technology exports. 24th January 2025 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: Trump’s trade plans still unclear, service sector improving We still have little clarity on the timing or size of any tariff increases President Trump is planning to impose on China. For now, we are sticking with our assumption that a 60% tariff will be... 24th January 2025 · 6 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Flash PMIs (Jan. 25) The continued rise in the composite PMI to its highest point since Q3 last year supports our view that activity will pick up again this quarter. Today’s flash estimate showed that the manufacturing... 24th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Answering your questions on Mexico We held an online briefing yesterday on Mexico’s economy and how it may be impacted by the Trump administration. (Listen to the on-demand recording here.) This Update answers some the key questions... 23rd January 2025 · 6 mins read
ECB Watch Slow and steady cuts by the ECB The ECB looks set to cut its deposit rate from 3.00% to 2.75% next week and signal that further reductions are likely. But it will stop short of giving any precise guidance about the timing and scale... 23rd January 2025 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Update Gentle fall in UK household saving rate to support spending Our analysis suggests that most of the recent rise in the household saving rate can be attributed to cyclical rather than structural factors, which means the saving rate will slowly fall as interest... 23rd January 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of Trump’s take on the Panama Canal President Trump’s threats to retake ownership of the Panama Canal reflects its importance for US trade and the country’s strategic interests. It’s possible that these threats are simply another... 23rd January 2025 · 5 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (January 2025) After a stellar run, India’s economy has entered a softer patch that will continue for a few more quarters. We think that will portend an underperformance in local equities relative to other major... 22nd January 2025 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s activity data signals strong end to 2024 South Africa’s activity data for November points to a strong end to last year, underpinned by the mining and retail sectors. We think GDP will expand by an above-consensus 2.3% in 2025. 22nd January 2025 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s economy set for a strong rebound Egypt’s economy has struggled over the past year due to the effects of a weak pound, high inflation, and tighter fiscal and monetary policy, but there have been signs recently that a recovery is... 22nd January 2025 · 2 mins read
