UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales & Public Finances (Nov. 2025) November’s retail sales and public finances data reveal some tentative signs of improvement, but both are coming too late to make much difference to retailers in the so-called “Golden Quarter” and for... 19th December 2025 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Three things to watch in 2026 Our India Economic Outlook for Q1 2026 and accompanying dashboard contain all of our latest analysis and forecasts for India’s economy and financial markets. In our final Weekly of 2025, we highlight... 19th December 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly New Zealand’s economy isn’t in the clear just yet Following a strong rebound in the New Zealand economy in Q3, financial markets are increasingly pricing in the start of a new RBNZ tightening cycle in the months ahead. However, we remain sceptical... 19th December 2025 · 4 mins read
US Economic Outlook AI investment boom to power economy We are increasingly confident that the surge in AI-related investment this year marks the start of a multi-year capex boom. Even allowing for ongoing labour market softness that will weigh on... 18th December 2025 · 16 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB still neutral on interest rates The tone of today’s ECB press conference was fairly bullish on the economic outlook, but Christine Lagarde stuck rigidly to neutral messaging on future interest rate decisions. While policy changes... 18th December 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Soft growth to keep Bank on pause in 2026 The labour market has bounced back from the US tariff shock, but uncertainty over CUSMA and lower immigration will hold back GDP growth, which we expect to average 1.2% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027. Lower... 18th December 2025 · 13 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Muddling through The global economy enters 2026 under the influence of contrasting forces, which will result in moderate GDP growth overall but widening gaps in performance and policy. The economic benefits of AI will... 18th December 2025 · 45 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oil prices, Morocco inflation-targeting, Saudi inflation Brent crude dropped to its lowest level since early 2021 this week, and we think that this trend will persist in 2026. This is not a major concern for the Gulf economies' balance sheets, but it... 18th December 2025 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (December 2025) Our Emerging Markets Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. EM GDP growth has held up well in 2025, but we expect it to slow to ~3.5% in 2026-27, the... 18th December 2025 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Loose fiscal policy bolsters the case for RBA hikes The Australian government’s mid-year budget update showed that efforts to rein in public spending remain few and far between. With the economy pushing up against capacity constraints, the case for the... 18th December 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand GDP (Q3 2025) Although the New Zealand economy bounced back strongly in Q3, the recovery is likely to be somewhat choppy going forward. Accordingly, we believe the RBNZ will remain in wait and watch mode for a... 17th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Venezuela blockade poses limited upside to oil prices The US blockade on sanctioned oil from Venezuela crystallises a key risk that has overshadowed the oil market in recent months. That said, the upside risks for oil prices are limited, not least... 17th December 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Dec. 2025) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Most economies in Central and Eastern Europe will experience stronger GDP growth in 2026... 17th December 2025 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (December 2025) After a very strong 2025, economic growth in India is likely to slow in 2026 in the face of punitive US tariffs. But they could get rolled back and, even if they don’t, India will remain a relative... 17th December 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Ifo Survey (December 2025) The fall in the German Ifo in December chimes with the drop in the Composite PMI and suggests that the long-awaited recovery in the German economy still has not materialised, with the fiscal stimulus... 17th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Dec. '25) The macroeconomic backdrop has turned increasingly favourable and we expect Sub-Saharan Africa to enter its strongest period of growth in the coming years since the early 2010s. Our forecasts for most... 16th December 2025 · 0 mins read
