Europe Economics Update Putting the euro-zone’s energy price shock in context In our baseline scenario, the euro-zone’s energy import bill rises by 0.4% of GDP this year, which is not unusually high. In our adverse scenario it increases by three times this amount, which is high... 14th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update MAS tightens policy as oil price shock lifts inflation outlook Singapore’s central bank today tightened monetary policy and raised its inflation forecast for this year in response to the crisis in the Middle East and the resulting surge in global energy prices... 14th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s election: your questions answered This Update answers the questions that we received during our Drop-in on Hungary’s election result. (An on-demand recording is available here.) The primary implication of the opposition Tisza party’s... 13th April 2026 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update High energy prices a double-edged sword Latin America as a whole is a net beneficiary from higher energy prices, but the terms of trade boost is limited (or in Mexico’s case more than offset) by a lack of domestic refining capacity. The... 13th April 2026 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Households lack cushion against gasoline price shock The sharp fall in the saving rate to 4.0% in February predates the Iran war and may signal what lies ahead as households absorb much higher fuel bills. This limited cushion suggests households will... 10th April 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Lower gas price forecasts, ECB to leave rates unchanged We are revising our forecast for ECB policy rates (again!) to reflect our reassessment of the outlook for European natural gas prices. In our new baseline scenario for gas prices, euro-zone inflation... 10th April 2026 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Revising down our baseline UK inflation forecasts This week we have lowered our European natural gas price forecasts in our baseline scenario. As a result, we now expect UK CPI inflation to peak at around 4.0% (4.5% previously) and UK GDP to grow by... 10th April 2026 · 9 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Kenya holds rates, Nigeria insecurity worsening The energy price shock prompted the Central Bank of Kenya to halt its easing cycle this week and, while policymakers sound relatively sanguine, they appear to be underestimating the risks from growing... 10th April 2026 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Orbán’s sternest challenge Hungary’s parliamentary election on Sunday could bring an end to PM Orbán’s 16-year rule and usher in a shift to a more market-friendly and EU-aligned government. But there’s still a lot of... 10th April 2026 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Stagflationary impact of energy shock now evident The plunge in consumer confidence coupled with the rather modest rise in import and producer prices last month seems to suggest that the net impact of the energy cost shock will be deflationary. But... 10th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australia set to benefit from soaring EV sales While China is the key beneficiary of the recent surge in sales of electric vehicles in Australia and elsewhere, Australia will ultimately benefit from stronger demand for lithium as well. Meanwhile... 10th April 2026 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US Personal Income & Spending (Feb. 2026) The slightly softer-than-expected 0.10% m/m rise in real consumption in February, together with the downward revision to January’s estimate to show real spending unchanged, puts first-quarter... 9th April 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The state of play ahead of Hungary’s election The opposition Tisza party heads into Hungary’s election this weekend as the favourite but may still fall short of the two-thirds supermajority needed to deliver deep institutional reform and unlock... 9th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (February) Data released today underline that Germany’s manufacturing sector was subdued even before the Iran conflict. We expect it to remain weak this year, though it is not likely to suffer anything like the... 9th April 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Durable Goods Orders (Feb. 2026) The rise in core (ex. transport) durable goods orders in February shows American industry was battling on ahead of the surge in oil prices, despite the heightened uncertainty caused by tariffs... 7th April 2026 · 2 mins read
China Economics Focus Decoding the 15th Five-Year Plan China’s latest medium-term policy blueprint continues to elevate technological upgrading as the key to both security and growth. It acknowledges some of the negative side effects of industrial policy... 7th April 2026 · 51 mins read
