Emerging Europe Economics Update

Thinking through a potential end to the war in Ukraine

Media reports suggest that the US and Russia are drafting a peace plan to end the war in Ukraine, seemingly on terms favourable to Russia. Were this to materialise, a lack of sufficient security...

20th November 2025 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Chart Pack

Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Nov. 2025)

Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The Q3 GDP data out of Emerging Europe confirmed a growing divergence in the region, with...

19th November 2025 · 1 min read

Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack

Emerging Markets Chart Pack (November 2025)

Our Emerging Markets Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. EM growth held up well in Q3, although headwinds from fiscal tightening, softer labour...

19th November 2025 · 1 min read

Africa Economics Update

South Africa’s economy lost momentum in Q3

The latest activity data suggest that South Africa’s GDP growth slowed a touch in Q3, to around 0.5% q/q, and we expect it to remain around this rate over the coming quarters, helped by improved terms...

19th November 2025 · 3 mins read

Asia Economics Update

Taiwan: why aren’t consumers joining the party?

Taiwan’s economy is booming and this has been driven almost entirely by exports, whereas domestic demand, and especially consumer spending, has been sluggish. That’s because faster wage increases in...

19th November 2025 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBNZ: One last cut for the road

We expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to close out its easing cycle with a 25bp cut at its meeting ending on 26th November. Our sense is that the Bank will want to take out a final bit of...

19th November 2025 · 6 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Colombia GDP (Q3 2025)

The stronger-than-expected 1.2% q/q expansion in Colombia’s GDP in Q3 reflects continued strength in domestic demand and adds to reasons to expect the central bank to hold off resuming its easing...

18th November 2025 · 2 mins read

US Economics Focus

AI boosting US economic growth

The AI boom that has been driving the stock market for several years is now clearly evident in economic activity too. In particular, we suspect that AI explains most of the pick-up in ICT sector...

18th November 2025 · 14 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Chile GDP (Q3 2025)

The surprise 0.1% q/q contraction in Chile’s economy was mainly due to weaker private consumption and exports and supports our view that the central bank will cut its policy rate by 25bp in December...

18th November 2025 · 2 mins read

Europe Economics Update

US-Swiss deal to help reverse GDP contraction

Assuming it is implemented soon, the deal to lower US tariffs on Switzerland from 39% to 15% would leave Swiss exporters paying the lowest US average tariff rate of any major economy, at around 7%...

17th November 2025 · 3 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Swiss Flash GDP (Q3 2025)

The 0.5% q/q fall in GDP in Q3 shows that US trade policies have been much more disruptive for Switzerland than was anticipated. But a deal agreed last Friday will reduce the tariff on Swiss exports...

17th November 2025 · 2 mins read

Asia Rapid Response

Thailand GDP (Q3 2025)

Thailand’s economy contracted during the third quarter and we think it will struggle over the coming months, prompting the central bank to step in and loosen monetary policy by more than most expect.

17th November 2025 · 2 mins read

Japan Rapid Response

Japan GDP (Q3 2025 Preliminary)

The fall in GDP last quarter further reduces the chances of a BoJ rate hike in December but we still think that the Bank will resume its tightening cycle at its January meeting.

17th November 2025 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia GDP (Q3) & Consumer Prices (Oct.)

The slowdown in Russian GDP growth in Q3, to 0.6% y/y, confirms that the war and high interest rates are continuing to take their toll on activity, and the latest US sanctions on the energy sector...

14th November 2025 · 2 mins read

US Economics Weekly

Normal service resumes in Washington

We are sending this Weekly again to include the dates and previews of the post-shutdown data releases that have been announced so far With the federal government reopened, the task now is to assess...

14th November 2025 · 7 mins read