Global Economics Update Global industry muddling through in Q4 November’s manufacturing PMI surveys paint a picture of soft growth in both activity and prices for global industry, with global supply chains still showing no signs of stress from tariffs. 1st December 2025 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (Nov. 2025) The further small decline in the ISM Manufacturing Index in November adds to the evidence that tariffs and related uncertainty are weighing on the factory sector, though not entirely crippling it. 1st December 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Focus ECB interest rates cuts doing little to boost growth Aside from the monetary loosening undertaken by the ECB at the beginning of the global financial crisis, its interest rate cuts from mid-2024 to mid-2025 were the deepest over a 12-month period in its... 1st December 2025 · 15 mins read
Global Economics Focus Assessing data quality in advanced economies While the accuracy of some official economic data in the UK and US has deteriorated recently, the issue is mainly concentrated in labour market data and does not appear to be a problem in other... 1st December 2025 · 21 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Oct. 2025) October’s money and lending figures suggest nervousness about forthcoming tax rises in the Budget on 26th November prompted households to become a bit more cautious with their borrowing and saving. 1st December 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) The increase in the manufacturing PMIs out of Emerging Europe in November offers some encouragement that demand conditions in the region’s industrial sectors may be past the worst. We expect a pickup... 1st December 2025 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update Six non-consensus calls for China for 2026 Almost everyone expects real economic growth in China to slow next year. But most forecasters think the picture will brighten in nominal terms thanks to a rebound in inflation and a bottoming out of... 1st December 2025 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey GDP (Q3 2025) The slowdown in Turkish GDP growth in Q3, to 1.1% q/q, still leaves the economy running relatively hot. But the positive contribution from net exports suggests that policymakers’ efforts to rebalance... 1st December 2025 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Resilience of profits adds to case for tighter policy With corporate profits hitting fresh record highs, the BoJ’s concern that US tariffs will provide a major headwind to business investment and wage growth looks increasingly overdone. To be sure... 1st December 2025 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Asia Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade (November) The November PMI readings for most countries in Asia remained consistent with soft manufacturing activity. However, the PMIs haven’t been a great guide to the hard activity data for some economies... 1st December 2025 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (Nov. 2025) The decline in the RatingDog services PMI adds to evidence that the economy continued to lose some momentum last month, with slower growth across both manufacturing and services. We expect growth to... 1st December 2025 (Updated 3rd December 2025) · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Economy doing poorly despite upside GDP surprise The upside surprise to third-quarter GDP growth greatly overstates the strength of the economy, with household spending contracting for the first time since the pandemic. Similarly, the Survey of... 28th November 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Nov. 2025) Growth prospects in Sub-Saharan Africa look bright, with inflation low or falling for most and a monetary easing cycle well under way, with many central banks likely to cut rates deeper than most... 28th November 2025 · 0 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s slowdown, Honduras voting for Trump or Xi GDP data from Brazil due out next Thursday are likely to show that the economy contracted in Q3, which, combined with the recent fall in inflation and inflation expectations, supports our view that... 28th November 2025 · 5 mins read
