ECB Watch ECB Watch: Moving from unanimity to dissent at the ECB The ECB looks very likely to reduce interest rates by 25bp next week, taking the deposit rate to 2.50%, but this will probably be the last “no-brainer” cut for some time. We expect the Bank to drop... 27th February 2025 · 8 mins read
US Rapid Response US Durable Goods Orders (Jan. 2025) The increase in durable goods orders in January was due to the volatile transport component, while core orders were unchanged. Although underlying capital goods shipments fell, business investment... 27th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Could uncertainty weigh on the global economy? Instead of clearing up the uncertainty about the direction of US economic policy, Donald Trump’s victory in last November’s presidential election has only magnified it, with threats of massive... 27th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response CEE Economic Sentiment Indicators (Feb.) The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) suggest that regional growth may hold up a little better than we had been expecting in Q1. That said, firms... 27th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (February 2025) Surveys so far this year, including today’s EC survey for February, suggest the economy remains very weak while inflationary pressures are still somewhat elevated. While the ESI did increase in... 27th February 2025 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: next phase of stabilisation plan more difficult Argentina’s President Javier Milei has pledged to remove capital controls but we think that a major change in Argentina’s exchange rate setting before the mid-term elections in October is unlikely... 26th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Qatar’s economy waits for the North Field boost Qatar’s economy will be stuck in the slow lane for much of 2025 as non-hydrocarbon activity slows and LNG output remains constrained. But the North Field will start to come online from Q4 and provide... 26th February 2025 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (February 2025) India’s economy is in the midst of a softer patch which we think will continue for a few more quarters. Headline CPI inflation is now within touching distance of the Reserve Bank’s 4% target and looks... 26th February 2025 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (Feb. 2025) Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The RBA began its easing cycle with a 25bp cut this month, but it appeared in no hurry to loosen... 26th February 2025 · 1 min read
Africa Rapid Response Nigeria GDP (Q4 2024) Nigeria recorded a further pick-up in GDP growth to 3.8% y/y in Q4 of last year and, with inflation and interest rates set to fall sharply, we expect the recovery to continue over the coming quarters. 25th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Long Run Economic Outlook Global megatrends will outweigh Trump disruption President Trump’s trade and other policies might cause turbulence over the next few years, but they are unlikely to derail the megatrends which will shape the global economy in the long run. We still... 25th February 2025 · 1 hr, 8 mins read
Event China Drop-In: 2025 NPC – Setting policy goals in a trickier global environment 1741161600 This year’s National People’s Congress (NPC) is taking place against a difficult backdrop for China’s economy; stimulus efforts have so far had only a fleeting impact on activ
India Economics Update India trip notes – Trump tariffs, the digital boom and data A week spent visiting clients, policymakers and contacts in India underlines that the digital economy is thriving, that there is hope that India will not be hit hard by Trump’s tariffs, and that much... 25th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Activity Data (Jan.) The stronger-than-expected activity data out of Poland for January suggest the economy has carried over some of the positive momentum from the end of last year. Alongside the recent strength of... 24th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Colombia’s investment, auto tariffs The bright spot in the Colombian Q4 GDP data published this week was the rise in fixed investment, but the volatile political situation and low savings rate will limit the rise in the coming years... 21st February 2025 · 5 mins read
