China Economics Update Economic security tops Politburo agenda The Politburo has just held its triannual gathering to discuss the economy. The post-meeting communique suggests the leadership has turned more positive on current conditions and sees less of a case... 28th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan’s boom becoming less lop-sided Taiwan’s economy has boomed over the past couple of years on the back of strong AI-related exports, whereas household consumption has struggled. But there are signs that the economy is becoming less... 27th April 2026 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Refunds, refunds everywhere but not a major stimulus Individuals have benefited from higher tax refunds this year and companies will soon benefit from IEEPA tariff refunds, but we doubt that these will make a big difference to GDP growth. 24th April 2026 · 9 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SARB can resist rate hikes, Nigeria reshuffle, E. Africa fuel This week’s latest comments from SARB Governor Kganyago reaffirmed the growing risks of interest rate hikes. For now, though, a high policy rate and a strong external position are reasons we think... 24th April 2026 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly USMCA, Kast’s fiscal plans, BCB to cut rates Comments from US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer this week suggest seem to have dashed Mexico’s hopes of removing tariffs on autos, exports of which have been struggling. There are also... 24th April 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Stagflation shock not as big as businesses fear The net effect of the stream of data released this week will probably lead to some policymakers at the Bank of England worrying more about the upside risks to inflation than the downside risks to... 24th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly What to make of the April’s weak surveys The larger-than-expected fall in euro-zone activity surveys in April challenges our view that the hit from the Iran war will be small. But the surveys have not always been a good guide to actual... 24th April 2026 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary’s cabinet, political turmoil, Q1 GDP Hungary’s incoming Tisza government has made positive steps with the announcement of key cabinet posts, including foreign and finance ministers. Political developments elsewhere in the region provide... 24th April 2026 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Inflation worries outweigh growth risks The MPC minutes of the RBI’s April meeting – in which the repo rate was left unchanged at 5.25% – released this week suggest that the upside risks to inflation from the energy shock are a bigger... 24th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly AI revolution still largely bypassing Japan The external trade data for March showed that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has started to reduce energy inflows from the Middle East. But the more striking development is the recent... 24th April 2026 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Inflation risks continue to climb higher in Australia Australia's flash PMIs suggest that business conditions bounced back in April, while firms' hiring intentions strengthened in tandem. However, firms have yet to see any respite from intensifying price... 24th April 2026 · 5 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Apr. 2026) Higher gasoline prices will weigh moderately on consumption, but there are signs that investment will broaden out beyond AI-related spending. We expect GDP growth to average 2.2% this year and next... 23rd April 2026 · 0 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Stalemate, swap lines and slumps Prospects for a swift end to the Iran war were dented this week as divisions within the Iranian regime hinder Tehran’s efforts to put forward a coherent, unified position in negotiations. And as a... 23rd April 2026 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Fertiliser price surge to hit low-income EMs most acutely The main impact of the rise in fertiliser prices on the global economy will come via higher food inflation. But this will take time to materialise and will be much smaller than the increase in... 23rd April 2026 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Flash PMIs (Apr. 2026) April’s flash PMIs suggest that so far the economy is holding up better against the headwinds from the Iran war than in our baseline scenario, but that inflation will rise further. This may well lead... 23rd April 2026 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: chips and policy support to cushion energy hit Korea’s economy rebounded strongly in the first quarter of the year, on the back of very strong demand for semiconductors. And while strong exports and policy support are likely to support growth this... 23rd April 2026 · 4 mins read
