Latin America Rapid Response Mexico GDP (Q2 Provisional) The stronger-than-expected 0.7% q/q expansion in Mexico’s GDP suggests that the economy is weathering the tariff storm surprisingly well. While we don’t think this marks the start to a sustained pick... 30th July 2025 · 2 mins read
RBI Watch RBI Watch: Why we think the easing cycle is over The further sharp drop in headline inflation in June has raised the prospect of another interest rate cut at the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) upcoming MPC meeting on Wednesday 6th August. But given... 30th July 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone households will remain reluctant to spend Households are still saving an unusually large share of their incomes and the latest surveys suggest that the saving rate will remain high in the near term, weighing on consumption. And while we... 30th July 2025 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Politburo prioritises supply-side over demand-side The readout from today’s Politburo meeting strikes a less dovish tone compared with the previous meeting on economic affairs back in April and stops short of committing to any additional monetary or... 30th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response CEE Economic Sentiment Indicators (July) The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe suggest that regional GDP growth maintained a moderate pace, at 2.0-2.5% y/y, at the start of Q3. The prices components of the... 30th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP (Q2 2025) & ESI (July 2025) The slowdown in euro-zone GDP growth in Q2 came as no surprise as the boost from tariff front-running waned. We expect growth to remain weak in the second half of the year . 30th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany, France and Italy GDP (Q2 2025) National data available so far suggests that euro-zone GDP growth slowed from 0.6% q/q in Q1 to either 0.1% or 0.0% in Q2, in part due to the reversal of tariff front-running. (Our projection was 0.2%... 30th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary & Czechia GDP (Q2 2025) The Q2 GDP data released out of Hungary and Czechia confirmed that both economies have held up reasonably well since the introduction of US tariffs in April. With the EU-US trade deal likely to deal... 30th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Jul. 2025) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The EU-US trade agreement, which will impose a 15% tariff on most EU goods exports to the... 29th July 2025 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (July 2025) The latest data suggest that global industry has been resilient to tariffs so far this year. But global trade softened in May and the latest surveys point to further weakness to come. Consumer... 29th July 2025 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (Jul. 2025) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. President Trump’s tariff threats this month put Latin America in the firing line... 29th July 2025 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China trip notes – shrugging off trade tensions We spent last week in Beijing and Shanghai visiting clients. The mood in China was not as downbeat as a year ago and our sense is that many companies and residents have adapted to the new normal of... 29th July 2025 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Jun. 2025) June’s money and lending figures support wider evidence that the deteriorating jobs market has led to a rise in consumer caution as households have become a bit more cautious about spending. This... 29th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Will Turkey & Argentina’s exchange rate policies backfire? The use of the exchange rate as a nominal anchor for prices – as is currently the case in Turkey and Argentina – has a broadly successful track record in bringing down inflation in the emerging world... 28th July 2025 · 13 mins read
Europe Economics Update A bad deal is (just about) better than no deal The trade agreement confirmed yesterday by Presidents Trump and von der Leyen could result in the average tariff on US imports from the EU rising from 1.2% last year to about 17%. We think this will... 28th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: EU-US trade deal nearing, lacklustre activity data The trade deal that the EU and US are reportedly close to reaching would reduce the downside risks to activity across Central and Eastern Europe, particularly given that the region's key auto sector... 25th July 2025 · 7 mins read
