UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Mar. 2025) While the 0.1% q/q rise in GDP in Q4 of last year was stronger than we and most other forecasters expected, the combination of higher taxes for businesses announced in last October’s Budget, a... 5th March 2025 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update MENA PMI’s point to a softer start to 2025 February’s batch of PMIs across the Gulf were generally softer and we think that non-hydrocarbon sectors in the Gulf will record weaker growth this year. In contrast, Egypt’s economy appears to be... 5th March 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (Feb. 2025) After the slew of weaker activity and survey data in recent weeks, the small rise in the ISM services index in February should provide some reassurance that the floor is not falling from under the... 5th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Germany loosens the purse strings The agreement on a reform of the national fiscal rule reached by Germany’s likely next coalition partners suggests they will implement a significant fiscal stimulus of perhaps around 1% to 2% of GDP... 5th March 2025 · 5 mins read
China Rapid Response Initial thoughts on China’s NPC Chinese policymakers have stuck with an ambitious target for real GDP growth but have become more cautious on the outlook for nominal growth and inflation. And while they did deliver some increase in... 5th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Trump’s tariffs and the implications for Mexico The 25% tariff on all US imports from Mexico that came into force today will, if it stays in place, knock Mexico’s economy into recession in the coming quarters. A contraction in GDP this year of 1%... 4th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Tariffs risk plunging Canada into recession If the US tariffs remain in place, Canada will undoubtedly fall into recession. The limited decline in the loonie so far suggests markets are still pricing in a quick U-turn from the Trump... 4th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Jan. 2025) The euro-zone’s unemployment rate in January remained unchanged at its record low of 6.2% for a fourth consecutive month, but other data show that labour demand is weakening. With the economy growing... 4th March 2025 · 1 min read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa GDP (Q4 2024) The 0.6% q/q rebound in South Africa’s economy in the final quarter of last year came on the back of an upwardly-revised 0.1% q/q contraction in Q3 and suggests that the recovery is back on track. We... 4th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Japan entering Trump’s firing line Japanese firms will suffer some collateral damage from the 25% US tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico. And if Trump presses ahead with tariffs on imports from Japan, carmakers would be most... 4th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing pick-up likely to be short lived The small uptick in the EM manufacturing PMI in February appears in part to be a result of the front-running of US tariffs, and is unlikely to be sustained. For now, the surveys continue to point to... 3rd March 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to higher goods price pressures The latest PMIs suggest that global industrial activity gained some momentum in February. But with more US tariffs on manufactured goods likely to come into force in the coming months, any rebound in... 3rd March 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (Feb. 2025) The fall in the ISM manufacturing index in February likely marks the beginning of the end of the recent mini renaissance, as the reality of the disruption to the sector caused by tariffs (including... 3rd March 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.) 3rd March 2025 · 2 mins read
