Europe Economic Outlook

Hopes for strong recovery will be disappointed

Economic growth will remain subdued over the next two years as the largest economies struggle and the smaller ones outperform. Past ECB interest rate cuts will do little to boost activity because...

10th December 2025 · 28 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi’s non-oil economy faces growing headwinds in 2026

The Saudi economy has been boosted by the unwinding of oil output cuts this year and this will continue over the coming quarters, but a step up in fiscal consolidation efforts means that overall GDP...

10th December 2025 · 3 mins read

India Economics Update

GDP rebasing could push India above Japan

On our current forecasts, India is on course to overtake Japan as the world’s fourth-largest economy in 2027. But there is a decent chance that the upcoming rebasing of India’s national accounts data...

10th December 2025 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook

RBA set to reverse course on rate cuts in 2026

The RBA is poised to join the rather exclusive club of advanced economy central banks that tightens policy in 2026. With growth accelerating when there’s little to no spare capacity and the labour...

10th December 2025 · 20 mins read

US Economics Update

Should we fear the 2026 “maturity wall”?

The rise in the number of business bankruptcies this year, despite little change in default rates for bank loans or speculative-grade debt, seems to reflect the larger number of firms trying to re...

9th December 2025 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Dec. ’25)

Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with our key calls and forecasts to reflect the latest regional developments. The Middle East and North Africa is set to record its fastest...

9th December 2025 · 1 min read

India Economic Outlook

Economy to cool, but outperformance to continue

After a very strong 2025, economic growth in India is likely to slow in 2026 and 2027 in the face of punitive US tariffs. But they could get rolled back and, even if they don’t, India will remain a...

9th December 2025 · 17 mins read

China Economics Update

Politburo signals further easing in 2026

The readout from today’s Politburo meeting strikes a relatively dovish tone, suggesting that more fiscal support and monetary easing is on the cards next year. The leadership continues to highlight...

8th December 2025 · 4 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

German Industrial Production (October)

The rise in German industrial production in October was stronger than expected but it still left output close to a post-pandemic low. And though defence spending appears to be supporting production...

8th December 2025 · 2 mins read

US Economics Weekly

Manufacturing outcomes diverging amid tariff cocktail

While the latest data show the manufacturing sector struggling as a whole, the patchwork nature of the tariff system means some industries are faring better than others. This divergence could be...

5th December 2025 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Brazil’s consumer slowdown, the “Trump Corollary”

GDP data from Brazil released this week showed that the economy slowed in Q3 - a trend we expect to continue into 2026. While the Selic rate is all but certain to be left on hold on Wednesday, the...

5th December 2025 · 7 mins read

US Rapid Response

US Consumer Sentiment (Dec 2025)

Consumer sentiment ends this year a little stronger thanks to the government reopening and the stock-market rally continuing. This should help keep fourth-quarter consumer spending resilient despite...

5th December 2025 · 2 mins read

Europe Chart Pack

Europe Chart Pack (December 2025)

We expect euro-zone GDP growth to remain fairly slow in the coming years. Germany’s fiscal stimulus should provide a temporary and fairly modest boost, and we don’t think it will do much to raise...

5th December 2025 · 1 min read

Africa Economics Weekly

SA data rush gives reason to be (somewhat) upbeat

The raft of economic data released in South Africa over the past week suggests that the economy will continue to expand at a solid (albeit unspectacular) pace over the course of 2026-27. Will the AI...

5th December 2025 · 6 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

Euro-zone growth will remain weak

The small upward revision to the euro-zone's third-quarter GDP growth, from +0.2% to +0.3% q/q, does not change our view that there has been no meaningful increase in momentum in the second half of...

5th December 2025 · 5 mins read