UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Aug. 2025) Despite the unexpected rise in CPI inflation in June, we still think the weakness in the labour market means it’s only a matter of time before wage growth and inflation slow to rates consistent with... 6th August 2025 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (Jul. 2025) The ISM services survey highlights the challenges for the Fed in the coming months, with the activity and employment indicators weakening even as the prices paid index rose to a new cyclical high. 5th August 2025 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Middle East & North Africa PMIs (Aug. ’25) July’s batch of whole economy PMIs were soft across the Gulf as fiscal policy becomes less supportive of non-oil sectors. Elsewhere, Egypt’s economic recovery has continued to strengthen, supported by... 5th August 2025 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch RBA Watch: Despite its cautious tone, RBA will cut rates to 2.85% With underlying inflation within striking distance of the midpoint of the RBA’s 2-3% target, the Board should have no qualms about cutting rates by 25bp at its meeting next Tuesday. Although the Bank... 5th August 2025 · 8 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Indonesia GDP (Q2 2025) Officials figures released today showed that Indonesia’s GDP growth stood at 5.1% y/y in Q2, but we don’t have much faith in the data – growth has been close to 5% for the past few years. Our... 5th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Monthly Household Spending Indicator (Jun. 25) The strong pickup in household spending last quarter won’t keep the RBA from handing down a 25bp cut when it meets next Tuesday. Looking ahead, however, the data do suggest upside risks to our below... 5th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Morocco’s auto boom to shift economy into higher gear Morocco’s autos production has surged over the past decade and now rivals major producers in Europe, such as Poland and Hungary and output could soon surpass Italy. This growth in the manufacturing... 4th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs show global industry off to a weak start in Q3 The latest PMIs suggest that global industrial activity lost some momentum at the start of Q3 and will probably weaken further from here. 1st August 2025 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: SA, Mozambique and Ghana cut rates, US tariffs Central banks in Ghana, Mozambique and South Africa continued their monetary easing cycles this week, and the dovish tone of South Africa's meeting supports our below-consensus rate forecast... 1st August 2025 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (Jul. 2025) The fall in the ISM manufacturing index in July paints a slightly bleaker picture of the sector than is the reality. The rise in the production and new orders sub-indices, along with the fall in the... 1st August 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Mexico’s tariff resilience, exemptions for Chile & Brazil Having found itself in Trump’s firing line a few weeks ago, this week’s tariffs announcements were better for much of Latin America than had been feared and it now looks like the hit to GDP will be... 1st August 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: CEE gets off (relatively) lightly, tougher talk on Russia The EU-US tariff deal this week confirms that Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) will be subject to the milder end of Trump’s tariff policy, and the reduced tariff rates for motor vehicles are a notable... 1st August 2025 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Households faring better than businesses The latest survey indicators suggest the near-term economic outlook is soft, particularly for businesses. But households may fare a bit better. Although UK equities have lost some ground today, if the... 1st August 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Euro-zone looks resilient to tariffs, German budget The US-EU trade deal announced last Sunday and confirmed by the recent US Executive Order was in line with expectations for a 15% tariff on most goods exports to the US. We think it will cost the euro... 1st August 2025 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia Weekly: Trump's tariffs and what they mean for Asia Most countries in Asia will face tariffs of 15–25% on their exports to the US. While the tariffs are higher than we initially assumed, the impact on most countries will be manageable since they won’t... 1st August 2025 · 7 mins read
