Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Loose fiscal policy bolsters the case for RBA hikes The Australian government’s mid-year budget update showed that efforts to rein in public spending remain few and far between. With the economy pushing up against capacity constraints, the case for the... 18th December 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand GDP (Q3 2025) Although the New Zealand economy bounced back strongly in Q3, the recovery is likely to be somewhat choppy going forward. Accordingly, we believe the RBNZ will remain in wait and watch mode for a... 17th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Venezuela blockade poses limited upside to oil prices The US blockade on sanctioned oil from Venezuela crystallises a key risk that has overshadowed the oil market in recent months. That said, the upside risks for oil prices are limited, not least... 17th December 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Dec. 2025) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Most economies in Central and Eastern Europe will experience stronger GDP growth in 2026... 17th December 2025 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (December 2025) After a very strong 2025, economic growth in India is likely to slow in 2026 in the face of punitive US tariffs. But they could get rolled back and, even if they don’t, India will remain a relative... 17th December 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Ifo Survey (December 2025) The fall in the German Ifo in December chimes with the drop in the Composite PMI and suggests that the long-awaited recovery in the German economy still has not materialised, with the fiscal stimulus... 17th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Dec. '25) The macroeconomic backdrop has turned increasingly favourable and we expect Sub-Saharan Africa to enter its strongest period of growth in the coming years since the early 2010s. Our forecasts for most... 16th December 2025 · 0 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Softer growth, starker divides EM GDP growth will slow to ~3.5% in 2026-27, the weakest rate in the past three decades outside times of crisis. But there are wide divergences at a country level. Much of the weakness in EM growth... 16th December 2025 · 27 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Oct. 2025) Retail sales were unchanged in October, although this was mostly down to lower motor vehicle sales as Biden-era EV rebates were phased out. While household consumption growth will have been weaker in... 16th December 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Flash PMIs (Dec. 2025) Although December’s flash PMIs showed that economic activity and price pressures increased, they are still consistent with sluggish GDP growth and falling services inflation. So we doubt this will... 16th December 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (December 2025) December’s flash PMI was a little weaker than the reading in November but is still consistent with the economy expanding moderately in the fourth quarter while inflationary pressures remain too high... 16th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (Dec. 2025) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Regional GDP growth will slow next year, which combined with softer inflation... 15th December 2025 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook SSA set for its strongest growth streak in over a decade The macroeconomic backdrop has turned increasingly favourable and we expect Sub-Saharan Africa to enter its strongest period of growth in the coming years since the early 2010s. Our forecasts for most... 15th December 2025 · 19 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Solid growth, easing cycles drawing to a close The economic outlook across much of Asia has improved recently, prompting modest upward revisions to our 2026 GDP growth forecasts. Strong demand for AI-related products will continue to lift exports... 15th December 2025 · 25 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales (Oct. 2025) The fall in manufacturing sales in October appears to have been mostly the result of newly-implemented US tariffs weighing on certain sectors, or at least the threat thereof. We expect trade... 15th December 2025 · 2 mins read
China Economic Outlook Growth to stay soft as deflation persists Fiscal support and a ramp-up in AI investment will prevent a sharp slowdown in China’s economy, but we expect growth to remain weak in 2026. Deflation and overcapacity will persist and China’s... 15th December 2025 · 17 mins read
