China Economics Weekly

Stronger data ahead as PBOC continues to ease

The Q4 GDP data due on Wednesday are likely to confirm what we’ve been saying for some time – that the economy was regaining momentum at the end of 2023 thanks to policy support. That recovery is...

12th January 2024 · 7 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK GDP (Nov. 2023)

The 0.3% m/m rebound in real GDP in November (consensus and CE forecast 0.2%) increases the chances that the economy escaped a recession in 2023. And with rates for new mortgages now falling and lower...

12th January 2024 · 3 mins read

India Economics Weekly

Air pollution threat, FDI outlook, CPI data

Air quality levels in India have been the worst on record in recent weeks and the country's reliance on coal suggests that this will remain an economic headwind for a long time to come. That doesn't...

12th January 2024 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Monthly Household Spending Indicator (Nov. 23)

12th January 2024 · 2 mins read

Global Economics Chart Pack

Global Economics Chart Pack (Jan. 2024)

We think that global growth will undershoot consensus expectations in 2024 as various props to growth from 2023 fade and as the lagged effects of past rate hikes continue to feed through. Among the...

11th January 2024 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Jordan’s economy stuck in malaise

Economic growth in Jordan has been sluggish for the best part of a decade and the outlook doesn't look much brighter. While the renewed IMF programme will help to contain external strains, the Israel...

11th January 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Economics Update

Loan defaults unlikely to hinder economic recovery

The lagged effects of the weak economy and high interest rates may mean that loan default rates rise in the coming months. But the prospect of interest rate cuts later this year will mean they won’t...

10th January 2024 · 3 mins read

US Economics Update

Is the worst behind us for business bankruptcies?

The surge in Chapter 11 business bankruptcy filings last quarter is not as bad as it looks, as many of them related to the WeWork failure. Excluding those, bankruptcies trended lower at the end of...

10th January 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Chart Pack

Europe Chart Pack (Jan. 2024)

ECB policymakers still insist that monetary policy will remain tight throughout the first half of the year, if not longer. But we think that weakness in economic activity and lower inflation will...

10th January 2024 · 1 min read

US Economics Update

State & local government spending boom set to end

The surge in spending by state & local governments has boosted economic growth over the past year but, with tax revenues falling back in recent quarters, that boom is now set to fade.

9th January 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Expect more EM growth divergence in 2024

Aggregate EM GDP growth is set to slow in 2024, but as important as the overall story is understanding the different cycles that are playing out at a country level. We think some countries which...

9th January 2024 · 3 mins read

India Economics Update

Why has FDI into India slumped?

The sharp drop in net foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into India over the past year was in part a consequence of the rise in global interest rates and the worsening global economic backdrop...

9th January 2024 · 5 mins read

Europe Economics Update

German industry still has further to fall

Industrial output in Germany is likely to follow November’s decline with further falls this year. While the recent fall in natural gas prices could help to stem the bleeding in the near term, energy...

9th January 2024 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Retail Sales (Nov.)

Although retail sales bounced back with a vengeance in November, that result largely reflected a one-off boost from Black Friday sales. With underlying momentum in consumer spending weaker than the...

9th January 2024 · 3 mins read

Latin America Economics Focus

Mexico: will nearshoring live up to the hype?

The optimism about Mexico’s economic prospects from the “nearshoring” of supply chains looks overdone in our view. Sectors where Mexico is already well established, such as autos and some electronics...

8th January 2024 · 28 mins read