Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Orban enters election mode Pre-election fiscal loosening is in full swing in Hungary and, with four months still to go until voting, the risk is that more giveaways are announced, which pushes risk premia on public debt even... 14th November 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland GDP (Q3 2025) The strong 0.8% q/q growth recorded in Poland in Q3 confirms that it remains one of the fastest growing economies in the EU and suggests that the risks to our near-term GDP forecasts lie to the upside... 13th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Why the CNB’s next move will be a hike The Czech National Bank (CNB) has left interest rates on hold over the past six months and, while the consensus view remains that there’ll be one more cut, we think the improving growth outlook means... 12th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) The decision by the National Bank of Romania (NBR) to leave its policy rate on hold today, at 6.50%, came as no surprise, and a return to monetary easing is still some way off. Our current forecast is... 12th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Higher defence spending in EMs: the macro impact Defence spending across much of Asia, Central and Eastern Europe and the Middle East is set to rise in the coming years, driven by heightened regional tensions and US pressure on allies to take... 11th November 2025 · 13 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly NBP interest rate cuts, diverging growth outlook The communications following the decision by the National Bank of Poland (NBP) this week to cut its policy rate by 25bp, to 4.25%, suggest that the risk to our forecast for the policy rate to bottom... 7th November 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) The decision by the Czech National Bank to leave its policy rate on hold today, at 3.50%, was widely expected by analysts, and policy settings are likely to remain unchanged next month. That said, in... 6th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) The National Bank of Poland cut its policy rate by 25bp today, to 4.25%, but we think the monetary easing cycle doesn’t have much further to go. We’re maintaining our forecast for only one more 25bp... 5th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania’s fiscal consolidation faces big challenges Romania has seen one of the largest bond market rallies across EMs in the past six months, but we think a further sustained fall in yields is unlikely. A lot more fiscal tightening is needed to... 5th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Slow going for EM manufacturers Although the EM manufacturing PMI dipped in October, the index remains close to its highest level since the start of the year. Even so, China’s industrial sector has lost momentum recently and the... 3rd November 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) The weak manufacturing PMIs out of Emerging Europe in October, at face value, signal further difficulties for the region’s industrial sectors. But the PMIs haven’t been the most reliable guide to the... 3rd November 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Oct. 2025) The fall in Turkish inflation last month, to 32.9% y/y, will provide some comfort to policymakers after the road bump in the disinflation process in September and keeps the door open for monetary... 3rd November 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Czech strength, Russia banking risks, NBP meeting Data released this week suggest that the Czech economic recovery is continuing to gather momentum. The risks to our GDP growth forecasts there have shifted to the upside and the central bank's easing... 31st October 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland’s credit engine still misfiring The 30%-pts of GDP decline in Poland’s private sector debt-to-GDP ratio since its recent peak is on a scale typically associated with the aftermath of banking crises. The reasons are more benign in... 30th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response CEE Economic Sentiment Indicators (Oct.) The European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) suggest that growth in the region as a whole held up relatively well at the start of Q4. But there has been... 30th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech & Hungary GDP (Q3 2025) The early Q3 GDP figures out of Central Europe showed a divergence in performance with Hungary’s economy continuing to struggle, while the Czech recovery shifted up a gear. We expect growth in Hungary... 30th October 2025 · 2 mins read
