Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: A brief sigh of relief in Romania, CEE wage growth Nicusor Dan's victory in Romania’s presidential election on Sunday triggered a relief rally in the country’s financial markets, but we think it is difficult to take an optimistic view on the outlook... 23rd May 2025 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Israel-Iran, Egypt’s MPR, Morocco secures UAE investment Rumours that Israel could strike Iran’s nuclear facilities suggest that conflict in the region could escalate. But there are reasons to think that the fallout for the oil market, and therefore the... 22nd May 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (May 2025) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The economies of Central and Eastern Europe have lost momentum over the course of 2025 and... 22nd May 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q2 2025) Weaker rental growth and only a small fall in prime yields meant capital value growth slowed in Q1 in most of Europe. Looking ahead, while most European commercial property assets are not directly... 22nd May 2025 · 0 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Expansion & integration: the future of EU enlargement The push to enlarge the EU has gained momentum since the start of Russia’s war in Ukraine, but accession progress is likely to be slower than many expect. While some candidate countries stand a good... 20th May 2025 · 32 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania & Poland Presidential Election Results The unexpected victory for centrist candidate, Nicusor Dan, in the second round of Romania’s presidential election on Sunday marks a major comeback against the far-right, and will ease concerns about... 19th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia GDP (Q1 2025) & Consumer Prices (Apr.) The sharp slowdown in Russian GDP growth from 4.5% y/y in Q4 to 1.4% in Q1 is consistent with a sharp fall in output and suggests that the economy may be heading for a much harder landing than we had... 16th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (May) The National Bank of Romania (NBR) highlighted concerns with the uncertain political backdrop and recent pressure on the currency when leaving its policy rate on hold today, at 6.50%. We now think... 16th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Romania and Poland at crossroads The polls ahead of presidential elections in Romania and Poland this Sunday point to diverging political paths for the two largest economies in Central and Eastern Europe over the coming years. A... 16th May 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q2 2025) Commercial property valuations worsened in Q1 this year as alternative asset yields rose while prime property yields edged slightly lower. Looking ahead, we think there is limited scope for falls in... 15th May 2025 · 0 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response CEE GDP (Q1 2025) The Q1 GDP data released in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) today confirmed that growth slowed across the region ahead of the introduction of US tariffs. That said, Poland’s relatively strong... 15th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian leu: is this the start of a big depreciation? The strong lead for far-right candidate George Simion in Romania’s presidential election, and the collapse of the coalition government last week, led to the largest one-week fall in the leu since 2009... 14th May 2025 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Trump arrives in a much-changed Middle East Donald Trump has arrived in the Middle East and changes in the power and influence of the region’s actors mean that he will find a very different region to the one during his last visit in 2017. Iran... 13th May 2025 · 14 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Romania on the rocks after election re-run The strong showing for far-right nationalist, George Simion, in the first round of Romania’s rescheduled Presidential election on Sunday has deepened the country’s political crisis, and the fallout in... 9th May 2025 · 9 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: What next for OPEC+ policy?; EU ban on Russian gas Following the recent decision by OPEC+ to raise output more aggressively than it originally outlined, we now expect the group to unwind the remaining ~3mn bpd of voluntary output cuts at a decent clip... 9th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM trade is performing well, but surveys look worrying The trade data available for March and April suggest that a large number of EMs have benefitted from a front-running of tariffs in recent months, particularly those across Asia (Taiwan, Vietnam and... 8th May 2025 · 4 mins read
