Commodities Update Drone strikes, Russia’s oil sector & the upside risk to oil The oil market has largely shrugged off the damage from Ukraine’s drone strikes on Russia’s oil infrastructure so far. That said, the damage to Russian refinery and export capacity so far, and... 6th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update ANO victory = looser fiscal stance, hawkish CNB The victory for the populist eurosceptic ANO party in the Czech parliamentary election over the weekend will likely result in looser fiscal policy, which will support GDP growth and cement the central... 6th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Czech election nears, awaiting a fiscal impulse The Czech parliamentary election kicks off today, with opposition populist party ANO set to gain the most number of seats. Depending on its actual vote share, the only way it may be able to form a... 3rd October 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Sep. 2025) The pick up in headline inflation in Turkey last month, to 33.3% y/y, was driven in large part by another rise in food inflation and, with core inflation continuing to drop back, we think that the... 3rd October 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Fiscal realities now biting in some major oil producers The 2026 budgets announced in Russia and Saudi Arabia in the past week point to significant fiscal tightening following declines in oil revenues and budget blowouts this year. Pressures for fiscal... 2nd October 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economic Outlook US leads, others lag, in uneven global economy The global economy will grow by a solid yet unspectacular 3% in 2026-27, but the sources of growth are becoming increasingly unbalanced. The US will be the best performing major advanced economy, as... 2nd October 2025 · 45 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus The macro implications of the Czech election The latest polling ahead of the Czech parliamentary election this weekend suggests that the right-wing populist opposition party, ANO, will gain the highest share of votes and may form a coalition... 1st October 2025 · 17 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) The weak batch of manufacturing PMIs out of Emerging Europe in September suggest that industrial activity in the region is continuing to be held back by weak external demand. The surveys also suggests... 1st October 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Slower growth to trigger more rate cuts EM growth has been resilient to US import tariffs, but headwinds from fiscal tightening, softer labour markets and (for some) lower commodity prices will drag growth down over the coming year. Most of... 30th September 2025 · 26 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Sep. 2025) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest data suggest that GDP growth in Central and Eastern Europe remained resilient... 29th September 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.) The hawkish communications from the Bank of Israel (BoI), as it left its policy rate on hold today, at 4.50%, suggest that expectations for interest rate cuts this year may be disappointed. While we... 29th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Weak recovery despite lower interest rates The extension of the ECB easing cycle into 2026 will support real estate markets. However, a softer economic outlook and the narrow spread of property to government bond yields mean even our upwardly... 29th September 2025 · 26 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response CEE Economic Sentiment Indicators (Sep.) The European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) were a mixed bag in September, but our regional measure of sentiment rose to a three-month high and points... 29th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly War pressures in Russia prompt further fiscal tightening Russia’s draft budget for 2026-28 announced this week suggests that policymakers are committed to fiscal tightening, through tax hikes to raise additional revenue and efforts to control military and... 26th September 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Sep. 2025) Capital inflows into EMs continued last month, with the restart of Fed easing and further declines in the dollar supporting bond inflows in particular. While we expect EM currencies to depreciate over... 26th September 2025 · 0 mins read
Commodities Weekly Supply uncertainties re-emerge as key driver of prices For all the recent focus on soft demand dynamics, developments on the supply side have been the main driver of oil prices this week. Heightened uncertainty is driving pessimism among US oil producers... 26th September 2025 · 4 mins read
