Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Orbán’s sternest challenge Hungary’s parliamentary election on Sunday could bring an end to PM Orbán’s 16-year rule and usher in a shift to a more market-friendly and EU-aligned government. But there’s still a lot of... 10th April 2026 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Apr. 2026) Despite the US-Iran ceasefire and the Polish government’s interventions to curb fuel price rises, today’s decision by the MPC to leave the policy rate on hold at 3.75% is likely to be followed by an... 9th April 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The state of play ahead of Hungary’s election The opposition Tisza party heads into Hungary’s election this weekend as the favourite but may still fall short of the two-thirds supermajority needed to deliver deep institutional reform and unlock... 9th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: election to decide fiscal deficit path We expect Hungary’s budget deficit to widen towards 5.5% of GDP this year on account of pre-election stimulus, continued soft GDP growth and higher debt interest costs. Regardless of the election... 8th April 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Policymakers look to cushion the energy price shock The policy support measures announced by governments in Central and Eastern Europe to cushion households from higher energy prices should help to limit the rise in inflation over the coming months... 2nd April 2026 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s frozen funds hang on a Tisza supermajority A victory for the opposition Tisza party in Hungary’s upcoming election on 12th April could open the door to the institutional reforms required to unlock frozen EU funds. But many of PM Orbán’s... 1st April 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Mar. 2026) Our measure of EM capital flows points to larger outflows from emerging market assets since the start of the Middle East conflict than during the height of the pandemic. EM external positions are... 30th March 2026 · 0 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Mar. 2026) The Bank of Israel (BoI) left its policy rate unchanged at 4.00% today amid concerns about renewed inflationary and geopolitical risks. Interest rates will remain on hold at the upcoming meetings, but... 30th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly New outlook, Turkey FX reserves, Russia’s fiscal boost The early signs suggest that the Iran conflict and surge in energy prices have had only a limited impact on activity across Emerging Europe so far. But balance of payments pressures are building in... 27th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: from disinflation tailwind to inflation overshoot The rise in global energy prices will push inflation back above central bank’s targets across CEE economies this year and prevent further interest rates cuts for the foreseeable future. We’ve lowered... 26th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Mar. 2026) Hungary’s central bank (MNB) left its base rate unchanged at 6.25% today, and we think the recent surge in global energy prices has effectively closed the door on the easing cycle for now. Interest... 24th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Central banks on the sidelines, will Orbán go? Communications from central banks in the region suggest that the uncertainty from the Iran war will prompt them to stand pat for the time being, but strong underlying price pressures mean that... 20th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly Russia sanction relief barely helps; cracks in refined markets The temporary easing of Russian oil sanctions by the US is one of several levers being pulled by policymakers to reduce oil prices from ~$100pb. But despite these efforts, prices will remain high for... 13th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Headaches for central banks If the conflict in the Middle East causes energy prices to rise further – and for a prolonged period – policymakers in Emerging Europe are probably going to be more inclined to raise rates than those... 13th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (March 2026) The conflict in the Middle East will lead to sharp falls in GDP in the Gulf economies and weigh on energy importers, especially in Asia. EM energy producers outside the Gulf will see a terms-of-trade... 12th March 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Mar. 2026) Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) opted to leave interest rates unchanged today, suggesting that – for now – it deems the effective 300bp of tightening delivered via the interest rate corridor sufficient... 12th March 2026 · 2 mins read
