Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.)

The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left its policy rate on hold again today, at 5.75%, and a rise in inflation over the coming months means that the monetary easing cycle won’t resume until the middle...

4th December 2024 · 2 mins read

Commodities Update

The geopolitics that will shape energy markets in 2025

While energy market fundamentals point to oil prices falling a bit further and prices of European natural gas and Asian LNG remaining higher than before the Russia-Ukraine war, the uncertain...

3rd December 2024 · 5 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey Consumer Prices (Nov.)

The smaller-than-expected decline in Turkish inflation in November, to 47.1% y/y, suggests to us that a monetary easing cycle probably won’t start later this month as many analysts seem to be...

3rd December 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

A weak end to 2024 for EM manufacturing

The pick up in the aggregate EM manufacturing PMI in November was largely driven by China. Elsewhere, manufacturing activity looks as though it will remain relatively soft into next year. The surveys...

2nd December 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.)

The PMIs fell deeper into contractionary territory in Poland and Czechia last month, adding to the disappointing run of activity data out of Central Europe. In contrast, the PMIs rose in Turkey and...

2nd December 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Romania Parliamentary Election

The centre-left Social Democrats (PSD) – the largest party in Romania’s current coalition – look set to win the most votes in the parliamentary election which took place on Sunday, but strong gains...

2nd December 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

RUB under pressure, Israel ceasefire, Romania election

New US sanctions on Russia’s financial system have contributed to a sharp sell-off in the ruble this week and, while a tightening of capital controls has eased pressure on the currency over the past...

29th November 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey GDP (Q3 2024)

The 0.2% q/q contraction in the Turkish economy in Q3 suggests that policymakers’ efforts to weaken demand and tame high inflation are taking effect. We still think that it would be premature for the...

29th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Chart Pack

Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Nov. 2024)

The weak run of activity data out of Emerging Europe continued over the past month and, while the region is more insulated from Trump’s tariff threats than some other EMs, the risks to our already...

28th November 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack

Emerging Markets Chart Pack (November 2024)

EM GDP growth ticked up in Q3 but is likely to fall short of expectations over the coming quarters as stimulus in China disappoints and still-tight monetary policy takes it toll. For most EMs, a...

27th November 2024 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

The implications of the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire

The economic impact of the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire hinges on whether the deal holds and whether it sets the stage for a broader de-escalation of the regional conflict. If it does, that would allow...

27th November 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Nov. 2024)

Amid the Trump Trade, capital outflows from EM financial markets have persisted over recent weeks. Looking ahead, we expect the US dollar to strengthen further, suggesting that outflows will continue...

26th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Poland Activity Data (Oct.)

The stronger-than-expected Polish activity data for October suggest that the contraction in the economy in Q3 wasn’t the start of a renewed trend. With fiscal policy set to remain loose over the...

26th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.)

25th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Romania Presidential Election (First Round)

The surprise lead for an independent far-right candidate, Călin Georgescu, in the first round of Romania’s presidential election raises the risk of an abrupt shift towards more populist policymaking...

25th November 2024 · 2 mins read