Emerging Europe Economics Update First thoughts on the Israel-Gaza conflict The attack by Hamas on Israel on Saturday has led to widespread casualties and deaths, and the declaration of war by Israel’s prime minister. From an economic perspective, the experience from the 2014... 9th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey rebalancing, UAH, Glapinski’s guidance Data out of Turkey this week provided some of the first clear signs that the recent policy U-turn is starting to rebalance the economy. This couldn’t come any sooner – Turkey remains among the most... 6th October 2023 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.) The National Bank of Romania (NBR) kept its main policy rate unchanged at 7.00% today, and we expect policy to remain on hold into next year. The NBR will be the last in Central and Eastern Europe to... 5th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.) The National Bank of Poland’s (NBP’s) decision to cut interest rates again today, from 6.00% to 5.75%, suggests that the doves are ruling the roost on the MPC, but we think that interest rates... 4th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Event Drop-In: Poland’s election – A fork in the road 1697119200 Schisms with the EU. Wavering support for Ukraine. Sky-high inflation. The stakes in Poland’s general election on Sunday 15th October couldn’t be higher.
Global Economic Outlook “Higher for longer” won’t survive economic weakness We think that the now popular assumption that interest rates will be held “higher for longer” will prove incorrect as economic growth disappoints and price pressures recede. While recessions have not... 3rd October 2023 · 46 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Sep.) The small (by Turkey’s recent standards) rise in inflation to 61.5% last month, from 58.9% in August, provides the first signs that the inflation spike is close to levelling off. But the central bank... 3rd October 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) The manufacturing PMIs increased across most of Emerging Europe last month, but remained consistent with weak industrial activity in Poland and Czechia. In Russia, the further rise in the prices... 2nd October 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Central bank meetings, Slovakia election, Q3 Outlook The Hungarian and Czech central banks maintained fairly hawkish communications at their meetings this week, but we still think that interest rates will fall sharply in both countries by mid-2024. That... 29th September 2023 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Consumer Prices (Sep. Flash Estimate) The sharper-than-expected decline in Polish inflation to 8.2% y/y in September raises the chance of another interest rate cut by the central bank at its meeting next week but, at this point, we think... 29th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Recoveries across CEE, but Russia and Turkey to slow Russia and Turkey have outperformed the rest of the region this year amid support from loose policy, but both economies look set for a slowdown in 2024 while recoveries take shape across Central and... 28th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Sep.) The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) were a mixed bag in September and our regional GDP-weighted measure edged down slightly, but the survey is... 28th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Activity Data (Aug.) Russia’s industrial production and retail sales data for August suggest that activity remained fairly solid and we think the economy is on track for GDP growth of 2.5% this year. Monetary policy has... 27th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.) The Czech National bank (CNB) left interest rates on hold again at 7.00% today, but we think that an easing cycle will probably begin at the next meeting in November. 27th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Financial vulnerabilities lurking in a handful of EMs Financial risks generally look quite low in most major EMs as current account deficits have narrowed this year and banking sectors remain in strong shape. But there are some areas of weakness... 26th September 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update MNB entering the second phase of the easing cycle The Hungarian central bank (MNB) delivered another 100bp interest rate cut (to 13.00%) and simplified its monetary policy toolkit at today’s meeting, paving the way for the second phase of the easing... 26th September 2023 · 3 mins read