Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.) The Hungarian central bank (MNB) announced another 100bp cut to its quick deposit rate (the key policy rate at the moment) today, to 14.00%, and we think that this rate will be cut by another 100bp... 29th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Re-thinking Turkey’s policy shift, Prigozhin’s death The 750bp rate interest hike by Turkey's central bank this week was a major surprise and there are still reasons to be sceptical about the policy U-turn that's underway. At this point, however, we're... 25th August 2023 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Five key themes from the BRICS summit Efforts by the BRICS group to demonstrate an image of unity and cooperation were on full show at this week’s summit, but – aside from membership expansion – policy proposals were light and not overly... 25th August 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.) The Turkish central bank’s much larger-than-expected 750bp interest rate hike, to 25.00%, at today’s meeting will go a long way towards reassuring investors that the shift back to policy orthodoxy is... 24th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Aug. 23) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Russia, Turkey and Israel had a strong first half to the year, but growth across Central... 22nd August 2023 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s macro pressures, external conditions tighten Macroeconomic stability risks started to crystallise in Russia this week as the ruble slumped and the central bank intervened with an emergency rate hike. Policymakers are considering further measures... 18th August 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q3 2023) Our Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The slowdown in rent growth in the first half of this year is likely to persist... 18th August 2023 · 1 min read
FX Markets Update We think CEE currencies are likely to reverse their gains Exceptionally high inflation in the major economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) relative to elsewhere has left their currencies overvalued against the US dollar and on a trade-weighted basis... 16th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel GDP (Q2 2023) The small pick-up in Israeli GDP growth to 3.0% q/q annualised in Q2 shows that the economy is holding up better than we and most other had thought this year. And we think that growth will remain... 16th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q2 2023) Q2 GDP figures for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) generally came in below expectations and suggest that the region continued to suffer the ill-effects from high inflation and interest rates last... 16th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: macro stability risks now crystalising The decision by Russia’s central bank to increase its policy rate by 350bp, to 12.00%, at an unscheduled meeting today underscores the challenges that policymakers are now facing to maintain... 15th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.) The Russian central bank’s 350bp interest rate hike, to 12.0%, at today’s unscheduled meeting is likely to be followed by further increases in the coming months. But there’s little the central bank... 15th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia GDP (Q2 2023) The better than expected pick-up in Russia’s GDP growth in Q2, to 4.9% y/y, confirms that the economy had a strong first half of the year. But with limited slack in the economy, this is likely to... 11th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Encouraging CEE inflation data, Turkey’s gold tariff The July inflation data out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) this week suggests that our forecasts for interest rate cuts to arrive across the region over the rest of this year, and in early 2024... 11th August 2023 · 8 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Bucharest office rental surge could have further to run Bucharest offices have been CEE’s best performing so far this year, as rent growth has accelerated rapidly. Although we expect growth to slow sharply from 2024, constrained supply of prime space and... 10th August 2023 · 3 mins read