Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing slowed sharply in Q3 The fall in the EM manufacturing PMI in September suggests that growth slowed last quarter and we think this will continue over the coming months. The PMIs did at least provide encouraging signs that... 1st October 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) The sharp fall in the manufacturing PMIs in Turkey and Russia in September provide further evidence that their economies are slowing. But the continued rise in the prices balances of the survey in... 1st October 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Romania’s fiscal risks, Russian economy under strain Romania’s fiscal watchdog warned this week that the country’s budget deficit could come in a lot wider than the government originally planned this year at 8.0% of GDP, and we think that investors may... 27th September 2024 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Sep.) The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe suggest that regional economic growth strengthened at the end of Q3. But the rise in selling price expectations... 27th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economic Outlook A soft patch The global economy has hit a soft patch with the euro-zone virtually stagnant, the US labour market flagging and China rationing its policy stimulus. We expect this weakness to persist around the turn... 26th September 2024 (Updated 1st October 2024) · 44 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Sep. 2024) Capital inflows into EMs have rebounded over recent weeks amid the start of the Fed’s easing cycle. Looking ahead, we expect EM inflows to hold up well as global monetary conditions ease further. In... 26th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Sep. 2024) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economies across Emerging Europe have struggled recently, and we forecast below consensus... 26th September 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.) The decision by the Czech National Bank to cut its policy rate by a further 25bp today, to 4.25%, was followed by communications which, on balance, felt a bit more dovish than at the last meeting. We... 25th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook EM growth enters a slower phase Aggregate EM growth is entering a softer patch, despite the tailwind from the Fed’s easing cycle. Growth concerns will prompt central banks in much of Asia to cut interest rates. But stubborn... 25th September 2024 · 26 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.) The communications accompanying the decision by the Hungarian central bank (MNB) to resume its easing cycle today suggests that the central bank could pause interest rate cuts again very soon. We... 24th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Activity Data (Aug.) The weaker-than-expected set of Polish activity data for August suggest that GDP growth softened over Q3. That said, we still maintain our forecast for relatively strong growth of 3.0% for this year... 23rd September 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Industrial to outperform as muted recovery gets underway After two disappointing years, commercial property values have stabilised. However, the recovery is set to be weak. We think yield falls in the coming years will be small compared to previous... 23rd September 2024 · 28 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Flooding in Central Europe, Israel’s new phase of war The flooding across Central Europe over the past week will likely weigh on activity in September, but we think that the economic impact will be relatively short-lived and won’t shift the monetary... 20th September 2024 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.) The communications accompanying the decision by the Turkish central bank to leave its policy rate on hold today, at 50.00%, were slightly more dovish than last month, but there are no clear signs to... 19th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Inflation and fiscal risks simmering We have generally revised down our growth forecasts for this year and next. Weakness in the euro-zone will remain a drag on export sectors across Central and Eastern Europe in the coming quarters... 17th September 2024 · 22 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (September 2024) EM recoveries are beginning to slow and will continue to do so over the coming quarters. Within this there will be regional variation, with Asia the outperformer and Latin America the laggard... 17th September 2024 · 1 min read
