Commodities Update

Russia-Ukraine gas transit stop is not a game changer

The termination of European imports of pipeline natural gas from Russia via Ukraine will only increase the EU’s dependence on imports of LNG and ensure that energy prices there remain much higher than...

2nd January 2025 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Putin’s stance on Ukraine, all eyes on the CBRT

A lot of headlines from President Putin’s annual year-end press conference have focused on suggestions that he’s willing to make compromises to end the war in Ukraine. But it also remains clear that...

20th December 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Chart Pack

Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Dec. 2024)

Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economies in Eastern Europe are struggling heading into 2025, and policymakers have...

20th December 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.)

The unexpected decision by Russia’s central bank to leave interest rates on hold at 21.00% today, rather than hike further, sparks a lot of questions about the central bank’s reaction function – and...

20th December 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Economic Outlook

Bracing for headwinds

Headwinds to growth will remain strong in 2025 and our forecasts lie below the consensus. While more protectionist US trade policy will hit China and Mexico, the impact for most is likely to be...

19th December 2024 · 27 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.)

The Czech central bank (CNB) left its policy rate on hold at 4.00% today, but we think that the easing cycle will resume before long. We still expect rates to fall towards 3.00% by the end of next...

19th December 2024 · 1 min read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Oversupply will keep CEE logistics in a rut in 2025

The non-euro-zone central European logistics markets have been Europe’s worst performing in 2024 as prime rents have fallen across the region. 2025 will herald more of the same, as oversupply keeps...

19th December 2024 · 6 mins read

Global Economic Outlook

Weathering geopolitical storms and tariff threats

We expect 2025 to be another year of reasonably healthy global GDP growth and a continued normalisation of monetary policy. To the extent that tariffs hurt the global economy, the damage will be less...

19th December 2024 · 44 mins read

Emerging Europe Economic Outlook

Growth under pressure amid persistent inflation

Slowing growth across Emerging Europe in recent quarters has set a downbeat tone heading into 2025. With domestic and external headwinds remaining strong, we think that most economies in the region...

17th December 2024 · 22 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.)

The Hungarian central bank left its base rate on hold again today, at 6.50%, and we think that a rise in inflation in early 2025 will keep rates on hold until at least the new governor, Mihaly Varga...

17th December 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack

Emerging Markets Chart Pack (December 2024)

EM GDP growth picked up in the second half of the year but faces headwinds in 2025 from tight policy at home and challenges abroad. Our growth forecasts generally sit below the consensus. Monetary...

16th December 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Fall of Assad, new NATO spending target?

The fall of Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad last weekend is a geopolitical blow to Russia, but has been warmly welcomed by many others. Turkey, in particular, could benefit from more influence in...

13th December 2024 · 8 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Russia: are financial stability risks starting to crystallise?

Risks to Russia’s macroeconomic stability are mounting on the back of the recent credit boom and sharp rise in interest rates. Our EM financial risk indicators show that Russia is now at high risk of...

12th December 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Dec. 2024)

Capital inflows into EMs have been resurgent over the past few weeks amid a broader improvement in global risk appetite. Looking ahead, however, likely policies from President-elect Trump point to a...

12th December 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Outlook

Rental growth the key driver of the property recovery

The recovery in property values is underway. But we think it will be a weak one, even though several European central banks, including the ECB, are forecast to cut interest rates to a lower level than...

12th December 2024 · 27 mins read