Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: is growing ‘euroisation’ a concern? The increase in euro-denominated bank lending and deposits across parts of CEE in recent years – due in part to high domestic inflation and interest rates – looks like a concern on the surface, but... 4th September 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Low supply and robust economic growth to support prime Warsaw office rents With new supply limited and solid GDP growth prospects supporting demand, we believe that Warsaw prime office rental growth will outpace the CEE average in 2025, before converging with the region’s... 4th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.) The National Bank of Poland cut its policy rate by 25bp again today, to 4.75%, but we think that monetary easing over the coming year will be smaller than most anticipate. 3rd September 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Aug. 2025) The continued decline in Turkish inflation last month, to 33.0% y/y, keeps the door open to large interest rate cuts at the central bank’s meeting next Thursday. That said, with inflation coming in a... 3rd September 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Focus Fracturing in the Age of Trump The global geopolitical map could have been redrawn by the end of Donald Trump’s second term. Some form of rapprochement between the US and China is conceivable in the next few years, as is a... 2nd September 2025 · 38 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.) The manufacturing PMIs out of Emerging Europe remained at weak levels in August suggesting that industry continues to be a drag on the region’s growth. That said, other survey data suggest that... 1st September 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey GDP (Q2 2025) The much-stronger-than expected Q2 Turkish GDP growth figure of 1.6% q/q (driven by domestic demand) is likely to make the central bank tread cautiously and suggests that the risks to our hawkish... 1st September 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland walking a tightrope with loose fiscal stance The reaction in Polish financial markets to the government’s draft budget for 2026 outlined this week, which envisages a deficit of 6.5% of GDP, has been limited, but we think investors may be too... 29th August 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Aug. 2025) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The economies of Central and Eastern Europe generally held up well in Q2 and, despite the... 28th August 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response CEE Economic Sentiment Indicators (Aug.) The European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) generally rose in August despite the higher 15% US tariff on the EU coming into force, and point to an... 28th August 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Aug. 2025) Capital inflows into EM bond markets appear to have surged over the past month, but outflows from EM equities picked up. Most EMs would be well-placed to cope in the event of a spike in capital... 27th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: end of KKM a symbolic, but important, step The announcement that Turkey will end the lira-protected deposit scheme (KKM) will only have a limited impact. The scheme has largely been phased out already. But there’s still more to do to increase... 27th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Prague industrial oversupply to continue to weigh on rents Increases in new supply mean Prague industrial rents are likely to hold steady over the rest of this year. But improving economic growth, a strong e-commerce market and attractive affordability... 27th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.) The Hungarian central bank left its base rate on hold again today at 6.50%, and we think that the scope for monetary easing ahead of parliamentary elections in April 2026 will be limited. While the... 26th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Ukraine security guarantees, Israel & geopolitical risk The intensification of talks to end the war in Ukraine signals cautious progress, but Russia and Ukraine remain far apart in their key demands. And Russia’s recalcitrance has become increasingly clear... 22nd August 2025 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: EU gas to shake off the summer lull; Jackson Hole and gold Although news on the likelihood of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal has influenced EU natural gas prices this week, we still think there are more important factors that will eventually drive prices lower... 22nd August 2025 · 4 mins read
