Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Orbán’s playbook, Greenland saga, Bulgarian election Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is returning to the familiar playbook of loosening fiscal policy ahead of the election in April. Any signs that a widening in the budget deficit will be sustained... 23rd January 2026 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Jan. 2026) The Turkish central bank unexpectedly slowed the pace of its easing cycle today with a 100bp cut, to 37.00%. We think this was a response to a likely temporary rise in inflation this month and we are... 22nd January 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Questions and answers on Hungary’s pivotal election The latest polls suggest that Viktor Orbán’s long-ruling Fidesz party could lose power in Hungary’s parliamentary election on 12th April. This Update answers five key questions on the implications of... 20th January 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Jan.) The decision by the National Bank of Romania to leave its policy rate on hold again today, at 6.50%, was widely expected by analysts, and we think that high inflation will continue to prevent interest... 19th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Consumer Prices (Dec. 2025) The further sharp fall in Russian inflation, to 5.6% y/y in December, will be welcomed by the central bank but this is likely to be temporary as a result of the VAT hike that came into force this... 16th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Iran spillovers, CEE activity, Russian inflation spike The spillover effects for economies in Emerging Europe from the protests in Iran this week will largely depend on how commodity prices move. From a political standpoint, the protests are another blow... 16th January 2026 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Bulgaria’s slow euro-zone convergence to continue Bulgaria has become the latest but also the poorest member of the single currency area following its euro adoption at the start of the year. GDP per capita should continue to converge with Western... 14th January 2026 · 17 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Jan.) The decision by the National Bank of Poland to leave its policy rate on hold today, at 4.00%, is likely to mark a temporary pause in the easing cycle, and we expect two further 25bp cuts over the... 14th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine’s security, Venezuela spillovers, CPI data The US and Europe appeared to move closer to an agreement on providing security guarantees to post-war Ukraine this week, but Russia is unlikely to be on board with the terms of the proposed... 9th January 2026 · 7 mins read
Commodities Update 5 key questions on the “shadow fleet” The seizure of the Marinera oil tanker by the US has put the “shadow fleet” under the spotlight, with some estimates suggesting it now accounts for ~20% of global tanker capacity. While a concerted... 8th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response CEE Economic Sentiment Indicators (Dec. 2025) The European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) suggest that regional GDP growth held steady at around 2.5% y/y in December, and we think that growth will... 8th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Our key calls for 2026 The recovery in European commercial property values is set to slow this year given the soft economic growth backdrop and elevated interest rates. Our forecast for euro-zone all-property total returns... 7th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Current account deficit no concern for Israeli shekel Israel posted a rare current account deficit in Q3, its first quarterly deficit in a decade, but we don’t think this is a concern and expect the current account to return to surplus in the coming... 6th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Reviewing our key calls for 2025 The recovery in European property values in 2025 was broadly as we forecasted. However, the drivers differed slightly from our expectations, with a smaller-than-expected fall in prime property yields... 6th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Jan.) The Bank of Israel opted to reduce its policy rate by another 25bp to 4.00% today, and the tone of its communications suggests that its easing cycle has further to run. We now expect a further 50bp of... 5th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are we too pessimistic about CEE retail rents? So far CEE markets have proved more resilient to the slowdown in European retail rents. While risks still skew to the upside, we expect that CEE retail rent growth rates will slow further, with... 23rd December 2025 · 3 mins read
