Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland’s budget blowout: how big a risk? Poland’s public debt dynamics are more favourable than many of its peers. But the sharp widening of the budget deficit, coupled with the decision to leave austerity measures until next year and beyond... 14th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Sanctions boost oil prices, but impact will fade away The recent ramp-up in US sanctions on Russia’s oil supply chain has tightened the global oil market and may keep prices higher in the near term. But we still expect greater OPEC+ supply and weak... 14th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Trump’s plan to end the war – is the timeline shifting? Expectations for an imminent end to Russia’s war in Ukraine once Trump takes office as US President on 20th January took a knock this week, following an FT report and statements by officials... 10th January 2025 · 9 mins read
Commodities Update Assessing the risks to energy prices While upside risks to energy prices have garnered plenty of attention in recent months, there are several downside risks that are worth noting. Although we would characterise the downside risks –... 9th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Our key calls for 2025 Against a backdrop of lower interest rates and weak economic growth in much of Europe, we think the recovery in property values will continue at a gradual pace in 2025. Our forecast for euro-zone... 8th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: disinflation now gathering pace The latest inflation figures out of Turkey have given us more encouragement that the disinflation process is underway and that the central bank could lower interest rates towards 30% by year-end. Even... 7th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM sovereign debt risks: not just a Brazil problem Brazil’s public finances have been in the headlines for all the wrong reasons over the past month. But while an extreme case, the combination of a large budget deficit and limited political will to... 7th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Reviewing our key calls for 2024 The end of the downturn in the European property market came in 2024 as forecast, though the euro-zone performed better than we had expected. That primarily reflected the strength of the prime office... 7th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: Turkey’s 2025 – Will policymakers get the job done? 1736431200 Turkey’s shift back to macro orthodoxy made it a key EM success story last year, with inflation falling, the currency holding up and its financial markets delivering outsized
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Jan.) The Bank of Israel (BoI) left its policy rate on hold again today, at 4.50%, but the accompanying communications struck a slightly more dovish tone and we think that it will be in a position to cut... 6th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Dec.) The larger-than-expected fall in inflation in Turkey last month, to 44.4%, points towards another 250bp interest rate cut, to 45.0%, at the next central bank meeting on 23rd January. 3rd January 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A loss of momentum at year-end The small fall in the aggregate EM manufacturing PMI in December and the declines in headline PMIs for most countries suggest that EM industry lost some pace at the end of the year. We think... 2nd January 2025 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Russia-Ukraine gas transit stop is not a game changer The termination of European imports of pipeline natural gas from Russia via Ukraine will only increase the EU’s dependence on imports of LNG and ensure that energy prices there remain much higher than... 2nd January 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Putin’s stance on Ukraine, all eyes on the CBRT A lot of headlines from President Putin’s annual year-end press conference have focused on suggestions that he’s willing to make compromises to end the war in Ukraine. But it also remains clear that... 20th December 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Dec. 2024) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economies in Eastern Europe are struggling heading into 2025, and policymakers have... 20th December 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) The unexpected decision by Russia’s central bank to leave interest rates on hold at 21.00% today, rather than hike further, sparks a lot of questions about the central bank’s reaction function – and... 20th December 2024 · 2 mins read
