Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.) The manufacturing PMIs out of Emerging Europe remained at weak levels in August suggesting that industry continues to be a drag on the region’s growth. That said, other survey data suggest that... 1st September 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey GDP (Q2 2025) The much-stronger-than expected Q2 Turkish GDP growth figure of 1.6% q/q (driven by domestic demand) is likely to make the central bank tread cautiously and suggests that the risks to our hawkish... 1st September 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland walking a tightrope with loose fiscal stance The reaction in Polish financial markets to the government’s draft budget for 2026 outlined this week, which envisages a deficit of 6.5% of GDP, has been limited, but we think investors may be too... 29th August 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Aug. 2025) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The economies of Central and Eastern Europe generally held up well in Q2 and, despite the... 28th August 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response CEE Economic Sentiment Indicators (Aug.) The European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) generally rose in August despite the higher 15% US tariff on the EU coming into force, and point to an... 28th August 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Aug. 2025) Capital inflows into EM bond markets appear to have surged over the past month, but outflows from EM equities picked up. Most EMs would be well-placed to cope in the event of a spike in capital... 27th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: end of KKM a symbolic, but important, step The announcement that Turkey will end the lira-protected deposit scheme (KKM) will only have a limited impact. The scheme has largely been phased out already. But there’s still more to do to increase... 27th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Prague industrial oversupply to continue to weigh on rents Increases in new supply mean Prague industrial rents are likely to hold steady over the rest of this year. But improving economic growth, a strong e-commerce market and attractive affordability... 27th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.) The Hungarian central bank left its base rate on hold again today at 6.50%, and we think that the scope for monetary easing ahead of parliamentary elections in April 2026 will be limited. While the... 26th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Ukraine security guarantees, Israel & geopolitical risk The intensification of talks to end the war in Ukraine signals cautious progress, but Russia and Ukraine remain far apart in their key demands. And Russia’s recalcitrance has become increasingly clear... 22nd August 2025 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: EU gas to shake off the summer lull; Jackson Hole and gold Although news on the likelihood of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal has influenced EU natural gas prices this week, we still think there are more important factors that will eventually drive prices lower... 22nd August 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM rates: where the market could be surprised Our EM interest rate forecasts generally lie on the dovish side. But, in particular, we think that investors are underestimating the scale of interest rate cuts that will be delivered in Brazil and... 20th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.) The Bank of Israel (BoI) left its policy rate on hold again today, at 4.50%, and the accompanying communications continued to highlight concerns about the inflationary risks stemming from the ongoing... 20th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q3 2025) Tariff uncertainty weighed on investment and industrial property in particular in Q2. However, we don’t expect much recovery in H2 as long-term interest rates rise and economic growth softens. Indeed... 20th August 2025 · 0 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel: GDP contraction should prove short-lived The unexpected contraction in the Israeli economy in Q2 amid the war with Iran should reverse this quarter, and so we think it is unlikely that the Bank of Israel will cut interest rates at its... 18th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q3 2025) Commercial property valuations improved in Q2 this year as alternative asset yields fell even though prime property yields edged slightly lower. Looking ahead, we think government bond yields will... 18th August 2025 · 0 mins read
